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Mesoscale Discussion 1353
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1353
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1137 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...OH...WRN PA...WRN NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 131637Z - 131730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
   COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
   THIS AFTERNOON.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY RISK.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST A
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE BASE OF LARGER TROUGH
   ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER.  ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX SHOULD EJECT
   ACROSS WI/MI INTO SRN ONTARIO/SWRN QB BY 14/00Z FORCING BELT OF
   STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS  PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE OH
   VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION
   ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CAPPED AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NO
   MORE THAN THE LOW-MID 80S.  CU FIELD IS EXPANDING/DEEPENING AHEAD OF
   FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS OH/INDIANA AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW MATURING
   NEAR CMH IN CNTRL OH.  A GRADUAL UPWARD EVOLUTION IN CONVECTION IS
   EXPECTED WITHIN THE MORE CONFLUENT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS.  DEEP WLY FLOW APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
   MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..DARROW/HART.. 07/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   40058405 40778186 42067982 41277834 39408045 38778372
               38818502 39738516 40058405 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2014
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