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Mesoscale Discussion 1353
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1353
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1108 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NW INDIANA...NRN/CENTRAL IL...ERN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407...

   VALID 220408Z - 220515Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS HAS DIMINISHED AND WW 407 WILL
   BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z.

   DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS IS MOVING TO THE S AND SSW AT
   25-30 KT ACROSS NW INDIANA/NRN IL AND ERN IA.   THE CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTER MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WHILE MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL
   IL AND SE IA/EXTREME NE MO...SUSTAINED BY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF A
   MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE WSW.  HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND
   VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT AND OUTFLOW IS TENDING TO
   UNDERCUT THE UPDRAFTS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
   CONTINUE.  STORM MOTIONS HAVE ALSO SLOWED TO AOB 30 KT AND ONLY
   SUB-SEVERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS CONVECTION SINCE
   03Z...ALL OF WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
   DAMAGING WINDS HAS LIKEWISE DIMINISHED.  AS SUCH...WW 407 WILL BE
   ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z...OR REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE WATCH COULD
   BE CANCELED PRIOR TO EXPIRATION.

   ..THOMPSON.. 07/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...ARX...

   LAT...LON   41268846 41558750 41598707 41378689 40718683 40328694
               39898785 39658886 39698997 39849087 40089150 40689183
               41699187 42279178 42909153 42999128 42829089 42239067
               41679014 41238931 41268846 

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Page last modified: July 22, 2016
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