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Mesoscale Discussion 1354
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1354
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MO...SOUTHERN IL...SOUTHERN IND...WESTERN
   KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 131741Z - 131915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
   BOUNDARY FROM PARTS OF MO INTO CENTRAL IND.  A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
   STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  WW MIGHT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING CU FIELD
   ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY FROM VIH-BLV-HUF.  STRONG HEATING
   ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
   70S...ARE YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES 1500-2500 J/KG.  12Z MODELS AND
   LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS AGREE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  25-35 KNOTS OF WESTERLY MID
   LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE MULTICELL
   OR TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. 
   TRENDS IN THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE AND A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   ..HART/DARROW.. 07/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38169179 38609008 38948859 39568650 38898539 37888569
               37208786 37179090 37669219 38169179 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2014
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