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Mesoscale Discussion 1355
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1355
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY / SWRN NEB PANHANDLE / NERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 131906Z - 132100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT AND MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...19Z RADAR MOSAIC DATA SHOWS SEVERAL STORMS OVER SERN WY
   THAT HAVE INTENSIFIED WITHIN A DESTABILIZING POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. 
   THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMPLIES A WEAK UPPER SPEED MAX MAY BE MOVING
   SEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND AID IN STORM
   INITIATION/DEVELOPMENT.  SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 DEG
   F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S HAVE YIELDED UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG
   MLCAPE ACCORDING A MODIFIED 12Z DNR RAOB.  MODERATE TO STRONG NWLY
   FLOW AOA H4 IS ACTING TO SUSTAIN/VENT UPDRAFTS IN PROGRESS.  SEVERAL
   OF THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SEWD INTO NERN CO INVOF THE CO/WY/NEB
   BORDER AND POSE AN ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT...IN ADDITION
   TO LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.

   ..SMITH/DARROW.. 07/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40640511 41690567 42110548 42290479 42230386 40730208
               40340229 40150275 40000349 40080445 40640511 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2014
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