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Mesoscale Discussion 1356
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1356
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN PA...SOUTHERN NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 131910Z - 132115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS OVER WESTERN PA. 
   ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL PA AND SOUTHERN NY IN THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  WW MIGHT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOPS SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTENSIFYING
   OVER EASTERN OH AND WESTERN PA /WITHIN WW 413/.  WHILE THIS ACTIVITY
   HAS BEEN RATHER SLOW TO INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS...AREAL COVERAGE
   HAS BEEN INCREASING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS
   AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST A FEW OF
   THESE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG/SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.  CLOUDS ARE ERODING OVER
   CENTRAL PA...WHICH MAY HELP STRONG STORMS TO SPREAD EAST OF CURRENT
   WATCH.  PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY MAY BE
   CONSIDERED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS.

   ..HART/DARROW.. 07/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   42057878 42437663 42077462 40577527 39787797 40117891
               42057878 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2014
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