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Mesoscale Discussion 1356
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1356
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1254 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL NM...E-CNTRL AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 101754Z - 101900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SVR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL NM. A WW IS
   NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG MORNING CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF
   FAR ERN AZ INTO SWRN NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX TRAVERSES THE
   REGION. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM TUS/EPZ SHOWED ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
   MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT...WHICH IS SUPPORTING A FEW
   ORGANIZED TSTMS/AS SEEN IN LATEST MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS/.
   FURTHERMORE...RICH MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.3-1.5 INCH IS
   ALREADY YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG ACROSS SRN AZ/NM.
   LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST TSTMS ARE CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS SWRN/W-CNTRL NM...WITH ACCOMPANYING
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
   THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SPREAD NEWD INTO PARTS OF
   CNTRL NM THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...

   LAT...LON   31700895 32290955 33420992 33780982 34640842 35030736
               34870606 34480512 33710496 32400570 31950800 31700895 

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Page last modified: July 10, 2015
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