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Mesoscale Discussion 1357
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1357
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CNTRL/ERN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 101916Z - 102015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR A BRIEF TORNADO...STRONG WIND
   GUSTS...AND HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KS. A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A STORM BECOMING INCREASINGLY
   ORGANIZED WITHIN SRN PORTION OF A PERSISTENT BAND OF CONVECTION
   ACROSS CHASE/MARION COUNTIES...AND IS PROBABLY NOW SFC-BASED. THIS
   IS OCCURRING ALONG A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT...WHERE A SLIGHT BACKING OF
   SFC WINDS TO THE SE HAS OCCURRED. TWX VWP DATA SHOWS VEERING
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS YIELDING AROUND 100 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH TO THE
   IMMEDIATE N OF THE WARM FRONT. GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND AT
   LEAST A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING STORMS...THE
   POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE ORGANIZED TSTM CURRENTLY OVER CHASE COUNTY KS. POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY A N-NEWD MOVING TSTM CLUSTER
   APPROACHING THE WICHITA AREA. WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY BEING
   CONSIDERED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38379537 37469607 37029739 37079796 37909798 38779746
               38829629 38379537 

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Page last modified: July 10, 2015
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