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Mesoscale Discussion 1357
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1357
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SERN AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 132037Z - 132230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR A STRONG
   TO SEVERE WIND GUST-PRODUCING CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING INTO CNTRL AZ
   FROM THE EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING TRENDS OVER THE PAST
   HOUR SHOW DEEPENING CONVECTION AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
   THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS AND AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER SERN
   AZ.  SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS IN THE
   GREATER PHOENIX AREA ARE IN THE 45-50 DEG F RANGE AS TEMPS WARM INTO
   THE LOWER-MID 100S.  THE MOST RECENT GPS PW OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
   PHOENIX AND TUCSON AREAS AROUND 1.6 INCH.  STRONG HEATING HAS
   CONTRIBUTED TO MARGINAL BUOYANCY BUT VERY STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
   LAPSE RATES.  A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALONG THE
   MIDDLE BAJA CA COAST AND THE LARGER-SCALE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER
   THE GREAT BASIN IS SUPPORTING BACKGROUND ELY FLOW AND MAY BE
   ENHANCING THE ELY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER AZ.  KFSX VWP DATA SHOWS DEEP
   ELY FLOW AND 20-40 KT IN THE 4-9 KM ARL LAYER.  AS A RESULT...STORM
   MOTIONS TO THE W WILL FAVOR STORMS MOVING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
   /INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO/ EARLY THIS EVENING.  IF A CRITICAL
   MASS OF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND RESULT IN CONGEALING/FORWARD
   PROPAGATING OUTFLOW AND A SURGING GUST FRONT...THEN A GREATER SEVERE
   WIND GUST THREAT MAY DEVELOP.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

   ..SMITH/DARROW.. 07/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   32211150 33451269 34541261 34631157 33921027 33350922
               32820925 32150981 32031052 32211150 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2014
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