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Mesoscale Discussion 1357
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1357
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN ND...NRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 221728Z - 221930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR-TSTM
   POTENTIAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IT IS
   POSSIBLE THAT WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY DURING THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WW PROBABILITIES MAY
   INCREASE.

   DISCUSSION...WATER-VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A SUBTLE...LOW-AMPLITUDE...
   MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CRESTING THE N-S MID-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER
   THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH POCKETS OF INSOLATION OCCURRING AMIDST THE
   VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THE SPEED MAX -- E.G. SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S -- MLCINH IS ERODING.
   MEANWHILE...THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR S-CNTRL ND. MLCAPE
   DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 2500-5000
   J/KG...AND WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST CONVECTION --
   ESPECIALLY IF IT WERE TO BECOME SFC-BASED. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
   RELATIVELY EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE DIURNAL HEATING
   CYCLE...AND GIVEN THE SUBTLE CHARACTER OF THE MECHANISMS FAVORING
   LARGER-SCALE ASCENT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
   THE SVR POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   REGARDLESS...THE AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY COMBINED WITH 35-45 KT OF
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WIND WILL
   BE POSSIBLE...AS CONVECTION POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONS FROM INGESTING
   ELEVATED INFLOW TO SFC-BASED INFLOW. IF CONVECTIVE UPSCALE GROWTH
   WERE TO YIELD A MORE SVR WIDESPREAD RISK -- PERHAPS EMANATING FROM A
   MORE PROMINENT TSTM/SUPERCELL CLUSTER AND/OR MCS -- WW ISSUANCE MAY
   NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...WW
   PROBABILITIES MAY BE INCREASING.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 07/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46479930 46399800 45879707 45269697 44979731 44949886
               45459996 46030007 46479930 

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Page last modified: July 22, 2016
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