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Mesoscale Discussion 1358
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1358
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0449 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...S NY...WRN MA/CT...CNTRL/E PA...N NJ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414...

   VALID 132149Z - 132315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...PRIMARY SEVERE RISK IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL MAINLY PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN WW 414 ACROSS PARTS OF PA
   AND S NY. NRN PORTION OF STORM CLUSTER WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR A
   BRIEF TORNADO...WITH PROBABILITY OF DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE AROUND 50
   PERCENT THROUGH 23Z.

   DISCUSSION...MOST INTENSE STORM IN REFLECTIVITY/VELOCITY DATA EXISTS
   ON THE NE CORNER OF WW 414 OVER SULLIVAN COUNTY. THIS SUPERCELL IS
   BEING FED BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS AMIDST A
   VEERING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25-30
   KT PER BGM/ENX/OKX VWP DATA. ALTHOUGH THIS CELL HAS WEAKENED
   SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 15 MIN...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEARING
   WARMER THAN FORECAST BY GUIDANCE...AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK SHOULD
   EXIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO
   SW NEW ENGLAND.

   FARTHER W...BROKEN LINE OF STORMS FROM SW NY INTO W PA SHOULD TRACK
   A BIT S OF E THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF PA.
   MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WLYS IN AREA VWP DATA WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   42307637 42367432 42367358 42287281 42097247 41787238
               41447254 41037356 40697441 40357519 39857618 39817721
               39877815 40027860 40587862 41247802 41867710 42307637 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2014
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