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Mesoscale Discussion 1359
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MD 1359 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1359
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0505 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL TX PANHANDLE...WRN/CNTRL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 132205Z - 140000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TX
   PANHANDLE EWD INTO WRN OK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS AS NEW STORMS DEVELOP ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND/OR A WEAK
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME SVR WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL
   BRIEF/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE
   NEED OF A WW.

   DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS E-CNTRL TX PANHANDLE EWD INTO
   CNTRL OK IS DEEPLY MIXED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW
   100S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SOME 70 DEGREE
   DEWPOINTS EXIST AROUND END. A GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FROM W
   TO E WITH MLCAPE INCREASING FROM AROUND 1000 J PER KG IN FAR WRN OK
   TO 3000 J PER KG AROUND END. WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY
   RESULT IN SOME FORWARD-PROPAGATION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NEWD
   INTO THE BETTER INSTABILITY. SOME ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT COULD
   ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY /EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM
   JUST SE OF SWO SWWD TO 30 MI S OF AMA/.

   GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR...STORM ORGANIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME
   DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE. CLK IN WRN OK
   RECENTLY REPORTED A 55 KT GUST. BRIEF/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR
   THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 07/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34819843 34759898 34700039 35100072 35570056 36199978
               36399918 36419853 36339783 36179741 35839725 35469726
               35229739 35059763 34919797 34819843 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2014
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