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Mesoscale Discussion 1359
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1359
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0239 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF IOWA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 221939Z - 222215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THE
   SVR-TSTM RISK THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH
   IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE TOWERS ARE BUILDING ON THE WARM
   SIDE OF A W/E DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE ACROSS NRN IA. ON THE WARM
   SIDE OF THIS ZONE AND FARTHER S...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S
   COMBINED WITH AMPLE SFC HEATING ARE SUPPORTING SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY.
   LARGE-SCALE VERTICAL MOTION IS LARGELY NEUTRAL...AND LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD
   SUGGEST THAT THE DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED BAROCLINICITY AMIDST
   BACKGROUND CONFLUENCE IS SUFFICIENT FOR AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION.

   GIVEN REPEATED CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS AND DIURNAL MUTING OF MLCINH...IT
   IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR...THE PRESENCE OF 3000-5000
   J/KG OF MLCAPE WOULD SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFT MASS FLUXES IN SUPPORT
   OF A CONDITIONAL SVR WIND/HAIL RISK. DEEP SHEAR IS WEAK...THOUGH
   10-20 KT OF WLY/NWLY FLOW AT H5 MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL
   CLUSTERING AS INTENSE COLD POOLS POTENTIALLY EVOLVE/MERGE AND SPREAD
   GENERALLY SEWD. IF IT WERE TO APPEAR THAT A MORE CONCENTRATED
   CORRIDOR OF SVR POTENTIAL WERE TO EXIST...WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 07/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   41729439 42419608 43079584 43129435 43029230 42599110
               42049086 41529168 41729439 

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Page last modified: July 22, 2016
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