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Mesoscale Discussion 1360
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1360
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0520 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN KS...CNTRL NEB...AND FAR SRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 102220Z - 110015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAY POSE A RISK FOR MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL...AS WELL AS A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VIS IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC DEPICT FAIRLY
   ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A LINE FROM TODD COUNTY SD SWD
   TO FRONTIER COUNTY NEB. FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A WEAK IMPULSE
   PROGRESSING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...AS WELL AS ENHANCED SFC
   CONVERGENCE ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM AN APPARENT MCV IN SRN
   SD...HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION/MAINTENANCE.
   ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...MOIST
   S/SELY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING HAVE YIELDED MLCAPE UPWARDS OF
   1500-2000 J/KG EARLY THIS EVENING. MOREOVER...RECENT KLNX VWP DATA
   DISPLAY NOTABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT...AND 0-6-KM SHEAR OF AROUND
   30-35 KTS...SUITABLE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION IN THE STRONGEST
   CELLS. THUS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG WIND
   GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORTS...WITH THE WIND THREAT ENHANCED
   BY ANY CELL MERGERS/COLD-POOL AMALGAMATION. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
   STEEPER LAPSE RATES/STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD TEMPER THE OVERALL
   THREAT...PRECLUDING WW ISSUANCE.

   ..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 07/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...

   LAT...LON   43580106 43519994 43129947 41919908 40239863 39019841
               38719846 38629879 38689943 40450103 41390132 42320130
               43240130 43580106 

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Page last modified: July 11, 2015
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