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Mesoscale Discussion 1361
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1361
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST VA/EASTERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 111657Z - 111830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHEAST VA AND EASTERN NC AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
   INTENSIFY SPREADING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.  DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE
   THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
   WELL.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED TSTMS
   INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SRN TIP OF DELMARVA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
   VA.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AND STORMS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO FORM
   NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL NC AT
   16Z.  THIS INCREASE IN STORMS AND CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND SOUTH OF
   THE FRONT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WHERE STRONG
   DIABATIC HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
   80S TO LOWER 90S TO HAVE BEEN MET ALREADY.  ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL
   AID IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1500-2500
   J/KG.  STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MOST RECENTLY HAVE BEEN ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT GIVEN THE GOES-R CLOUD TOP COOLING PRODUCT ASSOCIATED WITH A
   COUPLE OF CELLS.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
   AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
   25-35 KT FAVORS BOTH MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS.  GIVEN
   LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE...A TORNADO THREAT EXISTS...THOUGH
   DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS LINE SEGMENTS EVOLVE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   ..PETERS/HART.. 07/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   34557644 35037736 35467782 36187790 36847709 36797554
               35917515 35357500 34717576 34557644 

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Page last modified: July 11, 2015
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