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Mesoscale Discussion 1361
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MD 1361 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1361
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

   Areas affected...Much of Vermont...New Hampshire...Maine...and far
   northeastern NY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201738Z - 201945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely-scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected
   to increase in coverage the next few hours and will pose a threat
   for brief severe wind gusts, but the isolated nature of the threat
   is expected to preclude the need for a Watch.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows an expansive cumulus
   field over the area with a few thunderstorms along the western edge
   of this field over far northern Maine and far northwestern Vermont. 
   A 100-kt westerly upper level speed max currently overspreading NY
   is contributing to forcing for ascent and is increasing the bulk 0-6
   km vertical wind shear to 30-45 kt, supportive of some organized
   convective structures.  However, weak wind shear in low-levels, and
   substantial dryness in mid-upper levels, also characterized by poor
   lapse rates, should limit the severe potential.  Nonetheless, steep
   low-level lapse rates in regions that experience the strongest
   heating could support brief severe wind gusts with the strongest
   downdrafts.  This threat should remain isolated enough to preclude
   the need for a Watch.

   ..Coniglio/Cohen/Hart.. 07/20/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   47226941 47266847 47026806 46366794 45576812 44606885
               44076982 43807061 43547124 43407175 43407261 43687288
               44167320 44707342 45077339 45567272 45887197 46267119

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