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Mesoscale Discussion 1361
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1361
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0606 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN PA...N NJ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414...

   VALID 132306Z - 140030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
   EVENING...BUT MAY SUFFICIENTLY LINGER FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW AHEAD OF
   A BULGING CLUSTER TRACKING E FROM CNTRL PA. PROBABILITY OF
   DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE BY 01Z IS 40 PERCENT.

   DISCUSSION...BROKEN CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED
   OUTSIDE OF A BULGING QLCS CENTERED FROM LYCOMING TO CENTRE COUNTIES.
   30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL WLYS HAVE BEEN SAMPLED IN CCX VWP DATA IN THE
   WAKE OF THIS BULGING STRUCTURE...CONSISTENT WITH FORWARD SPEED
   AROUND 35 KT AND AIDING IN TREE DAMAGE REPORTS WITH A 30 KT GUST
   MEASURED AT KUNV. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG FARTHER SE
   PER AMDAR DATA INVOF PHL. GIVEN WEEK DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO COOL...OVERALL LINE INTENSITY
   SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER DARK. STILL...A SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS
   PROBABLE NEAR-TERM OVER E-CNTRL PA AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
   ADDITIONAL SHORT-DURATION WW.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   41217718 41447683 41527584 41277472 41037439 40737433
               40177454 40037472 39957541 40027650 40147725 40207768
               40457783 40817741 41217718 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2014
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