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Mesoscale Discussion 1362
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MD 1362 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1362
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of GA...eastern AL...north FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201744Z - 202015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms this afternoon will have the potential to
   produce strong wind gusts. A few isolated damaging wind gusts cannot
   be ruled out, though Watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing within a moderately to
   strongly buoyant and weakly capped air mass will spread generally
   southward and southwestward today, along the western fringes of a
   mid-level cold pool/trough centered off the Southeast Coast. This
   activity will develop along a weak baroclinic zone shifting
   southward from the TN Valley, sea-breeze boundaries, and amid
   diurnally deepening boundary-layer circulations. While mid-level
   flow is modest in strength, the presence of 10-20 kt of northerlies
   in the 2-4-km layer per area VAD wind profiles suggests that a few
   loosely organized multicell clusters could evolve. Furthermore, with
   steepening low-level lapse rates owing to widespread insolation,
   DCAPE may approach 1500 J/kg in some locations -- suggesting
   enhanced downward convective mass fluxes. Strong wind gusts may
   accompany this activity, and a few isolated damaging wind gusts may
   occur. Poor mid-level lapse rates, the lack of stronger deep shear,
   and weak deep ascent will all limit the severe risk.

   ..Cohen/Coniglio/Hart.. 07/20/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31718609 32688593 33268485 33168343 32298157 30708141
               29358154 28818211 29108285 29698423 29728536 31718609 

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