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Mesoscale Discussion 1362
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1362
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 111733Z - 111900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL IL THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WW ISSUANCE
   MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
   SEWD ACROSS SRN IA INTO WRN AND SRN IL WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 70S F. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   MODERATE INSTABILITY...CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS MOST OF MO AND FROM
   WRN TO SRN IL. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN WRN IL NEAR THE
   MS RIVER ON THE NRN END OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. THIS CONVECTION
   IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF A 30 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMA
   WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHORT-TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR MOVE
   THE LINEAR SYSTEM ACROSS CNTRL IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LINE
   OF CONVECTIVE STORMS MAY TEND TO PROPAGATE SEWD FAVORING THE
   STRONGER INSTABILITY LOCATED NEAR THE MS RIVER. IN ADDITION..THE
   LINCOLN IL WSR-88D VWP SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE
   SFC TO 1 KM AGL WITH AMPLE SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS.
   THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO 45 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE BETTER-ORGANIZED AND MORE PERSISTENT LINE-SEGMENTS. IF A
   ROTATING STORM CAN DEVELOP...THEN HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40648787 40869025 40349120 39959129 39449083 38849014
               38438931 39128774 39978757 40648787 

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Page last modified: July 11, 2015
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