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Mesoscale Discussion 1364
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1364
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0250 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern/southern OH...western/central PA...northern

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201950Z - 202215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging-wind potential could accompany
   thunderstorms moving across portions of the middle and upper Ohio
   Valley region to the central Appalachians and vicinity into the
   early evening hours. Watch issuance is presently unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development continues along a diffuse cold
   front from northwest PA through north-central OH. Additional storm
   development may also focus along the northern and eastern periphery
   of a residual MCV presently moving across southwest OH. MCV-related
   ascent is being augmented by differential-heating-induced baroclinic
   circulations along fringes of multi-layered cloud decks surrounding
   the MCV. The air mass south of the front and ahead of the MCV has
   become moderately unstable, owing to surface temperatures having
   warmed through the 80s amid dewpoints in the upper 60s to around
   70F. The most intense storms may produce locally damaging wind 
   gusts -- aided by slightly enhanced deep shear (around 20-40 kt of
   effective shear). 

   However, stronger deep shear resides north of this region, which
   should limit overall convective organization. Moreover, poor
   mid-level lapse rates, veered low-level flow ahead of the front
   limiting frontal convergence, and modest background low-level flow
   strength should prevent a more substantial severe risk from

   ..Cohen/Coniglio/Hart.. 07/20/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38778280 39978264 40698240 41018144 41048067 41197968
               41607839 41327776 40857789 39657963 38878172 38698229

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