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Mesoscale Discussion 1365
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1365
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1056 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN KS...MO...IL...FAR NW IND...FAR SRN LAKE MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 141556Z - 141730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM FAR
   ERN KS NEWD ACROSS NCNTRL MO INTO IL AND FAR NW INDIANA. WIND DAMAGE
   AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WW
   ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
   WEST FROM CHICAGO IL SWWD TO NEAR KANSAS CITY MO. SFC DEWPOINTS
   SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F AND
   MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE MOIST CORRIDOR.
   MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE MCD AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST
   AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL IL. THIS ACTIVITY IS
   FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY LATE THIS MORNING AND DEVELOP SWWD
   ACROSS MUCH OF NCNTRL MO. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWPS FROM NRN AND WRN
   IL SHOW DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. THIS ALONG WITH STEEPENING
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
   AND SEVERE MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. HAIL WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS UPDRAFTS MATURE.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   41798736 41908794 41048921 40429030 39889121 39339319
               39019495 38599531 38259496 38049408 38129290 38259167
               38868976 39578854 40878722 41428702 41798736 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2014
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