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Mesoscale Discussion 1365
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1365
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NEB...NE CO...NW KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 111953Z - 112230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR NE CO...NW KS AND WRN TO CNTRL NEB. WW
   ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1010 MB LOW OVER WRN KS
   WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER MUCH OF NW KS AND SCNTRL NEB. THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW IN YUMA COUNTY
   CO ALONG A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHERE SFC
   TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 90S F. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
   TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS SW NEB AND DEVELOP SEWD INTO NW KS WHERE
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH EWD EXTENT. SFC DEWPOINTS IN NW KS
   AND SCNTRL NEB ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70 F WHICH IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION TO THE
   INSTABILITY...WSR-88 VWPS IN SRN NEB HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 4 KM AGL WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 35 TO
   40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT AS CELLS MOVE EWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY. CELLS
   THAT EXHIBIT ROTATION WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. AS DOWNDRAFTS
   MATURE...WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BECOME A POSSIBILITY.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39470062 39110212 39690294 40530265 42820013 41889826
               39470062 

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Page last modified: July 11, 2015
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