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Mesoscale Discussion 1366
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1366
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WV...WRN AND CNTRL VA...WRN AND CNTRL NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 141650Z - 141815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
   CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN VA AND
   WCNTRL NC. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WHETHER THIS AREA WILL
   NEED A WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH IN THE LEE
   OF THE APPALACHIANS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL VA SWWD ACROSS CNTRL NC.
   SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
   70S F AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE
   ACCORDING TO THE RAP. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS
   FAR ERN KY AND IN WRN VIRGINA. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY
   EXPAND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND MOVE THIS ACTIVITY EWD ACROSS THE MCD
   AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
   WEAK...LESS THAN 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN VA AND WRN NC ACCORDING TO
   88D VWPS...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE
   RATES ESTIMATED AROUND 8.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
   WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED WITH SHORT
   MULTICELL LINE-SEGMENTS AND CELL MERGERS.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   36107872 37197829 37727864 37788042 37168216 35838232
               35178179 35357952 36107872 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2014
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