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Mesoscale Discussion 1367
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1367
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1206 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MD...PA...NJ...SE NY...DE...ERN WV...FAR
   WRN CT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 141706Z - 141830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM
   ERN WV AND NRN VA EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF PA INTO NJ AND SE
   NY. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS AS THE CELLS INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE
   WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
   FROM MD SWWD ACROSS CNTRL VA. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE TROUGH ARE IN
   THE LOWER 70S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE EARLY
   THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE.
   CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
   THE SFC TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPSTREAM
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST EVIDENT ON
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS THE
   MCD AREA SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED
   WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP. DUE TO
   STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE 1
   KM...ANY CONVECTION THAT SHOWS ORGANIZATION SHOULD HAVE A WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
   WITH CELLS THAT EXHIBIT ROTATION.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...
   PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   38047613 37917942 38668010 40147920 42007522 41597359
               39837411 38047613 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2014
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