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Mesoscale Discussion 1368
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1368
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1210 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...MUCH OF KY/TN...FAR WRN VA...FAR SERN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 141710Z - 141915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 17Z...TSTM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM
   NERN AR INTO PARTS OF KY AND TN...IN THE VICINITY OF A REMNANT
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR AN LEX-EKQ
   LINE IN KY...WHERE AT LEAST A SHORT-TERM THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WIND WILL EXIST GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
   AROUND 30-40 KTS. 

   THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
   RAIN-COOLED AIR TO THE EAST...BUT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
   INTENSIFY UPSTREAM ACROSS NERN AR/WRN KY/WRN TN AS FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
   SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL STORMS AND SMALL BOWING
   CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   STEEPEN AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER
   TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOME THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
   EXIST ACROSS NERN AR/SERN MO/WRN TN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE
   STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

   ..DEAN/HART.. 07/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...
   MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   35879159 36429064 37558624 37838340 37568246 37018243
               36358246 35968269 35278646 35119140 35879159 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2014
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