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Mesoscale Discussion 1368
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1368
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 402...

   VALID 112056Z - 112300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 402
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A
   FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS WW 402 AS STORMS MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE SERN
   PART OF THE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS CNTRL IL SHOWS SEVERAL
   STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH A BOWING LINE SEGMENT LOCATED TO THE EAST
   OF LINCOLN IL AND A SMALL CLUSTER OF CELLS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF
   ST LOUIS. THE ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
   WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX MOVING EWD INTO NRN IL EVIDENT ON WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...A SHARP GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY IS
   ANALYZED FROM WRN IL EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SRN IL WHERE MLCAPE IS
   ESTIMATED FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KT. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
   MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT OF A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WRN PART OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL MOVE
   SEWD ALONG THIS INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHERE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
   WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38778719 38428783 38418883 39009004 39549026 39838958
               40348898 40738843 40548775 39558675 38778719 

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Page last modified: July 11, 2015
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