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Mesoscale Discussion 1368
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1368
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0335 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of northeast CO...southeast WY...western
   NE Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 202035Z - 202300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some isolated severe risk may accompany convection
   spreading off the CO/WY Front Range vicinity and across the High
   Plains into the evening hours. Present indications are that Watch
   issuance will be unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Convection continues building over the CO/WY Front
   Range in response to diurnally enhanced orographic circulations.
   Sufficient convective coverage may yield loosely organized, merging
   cold pools spreading eastward over the High Plains into the evening
   hours -- amid a modestly moist, upslope flow regime. With surface
   dewpoints in the 50s over these areas, amid steep low- to mid-level
   lapse rates, sufficient buoyancy will exist for a few strong
   convective cores. With DCAPE of around 1300-1800 J/kg, a few severe
   wind gusts may occur -- especially where local cold-pool
   amalgamation takes place. Isolated marginally severe hail could
   occur, especially with convection as it initially spreads east of
   the higher terrain. While the presence of around 25 kt of effective
   shear may be sufficient for loose and smaller-scale convective
   organization, the lack of richer moisture, the lack of stronger
   buoyancy, and the lack of even stronger deep shear should limit the
   overall severe coverage.

   ..Cohen/Coniglio/Hart.. 07/20/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39110483 40240513 41290517 41570423 41490303 40960228
               39600220 39040268 38800384 39110483 

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