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Mesoscale Discussion 1369
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1369
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN CO...WRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...FAR NE
   NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 141748Z - 141845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN CO SEWD INTO SW KS. THE THREAT MAY
   EVENTUALLY REACH NE NM AND THE OK PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS. IN SPITE OF THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE TROUGH IN PLACE FROM NE
   CO EXTENDING SSWWD TO NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND INTO SCNTRL CO. A
   MOIST AIRMASS IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH WITH SFC
   DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F ACROSS THE MCD
   AREA. IN RESPONSE...SFC HEATING HAS CAUSED MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF CO EXTENDING INTO SWRN KS AND SWD
   ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO
   2500 J/KG RANGE. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS
   AFTERNOON...SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   DEVELOP FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL CO EWD TO THE I-25
   CORRIDOR. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS. CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE RAP IS SHOWING NW
   FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WHICH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE MODERATE
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA. THIS SHOULD ENABLE
   SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
   AND HAIL POSSIBLE. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY BE MAXIMIZED WITH
   SHORT MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36960090 36730405 37360583 38920609 39920589 40350463
               38580128 36960090 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2014
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