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Mesoscale Discussion 1369
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1369
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0500 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ND...SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 112200Z - 112300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO
   BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL ND AND NCNTRL/NERN
   SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THESE AREAS THIS
   EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...A CORRIDOR OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
   NEAR LEE TROUGH/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION OVER NWRN ND...SOUTH ALONG
   AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE INTO WRN/CNTRL SD. OBJECTIVE DATA INDICATE
   MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS WAS BEING AIDED BY PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER DIFLUENT FLOW. IN ADDITION TO
   RECENT STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NWRN ND...THICKENING CU EVIDENT ON
   SATL IMAGERY FROM ERN DEWEY AND CORSON COUNTIES IN SD...NORTH ACROSS
   SIOUX....MORTON...AND OLIVER COUNTIES IN ND...PORTEND POTENTIAL FOR
   STORM INITIATION IN AREAS OF THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
   SO. MIDLEVEL FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ARE NOT
   PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT THIS MAY BE OFFSET TO SOME EXTENT BY
   MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE SURGING
   DRYLINE MAY SUPPORT EVENTUAL LINEAR STORM ORGANIZATION.
   HOWEVER...INITIAL DISCRETE CONVECTION MAY ALSO EXHIBIT SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH WINDS AS WELL AS
   LARGE HAIL.

   ..CARBIN/EDWARDS.. 07/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48779916 48850261 48310261 47520174 46820130 46070084
               45419988 45039865 45229778 46369757 47689805 48779916 

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Page last modified: July 11, 2015
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