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Mesoscale Discussion 1370
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1370
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0545 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern MT...Western Dakotas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425...

   Valid 202245Z - 210015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat appears to be focusing over the western
   Dakotas. Severe thunderstorm watch may need to be expanded along the
   eastern border toward BIS.

   DISCUSSION...Intense boundary-layer heating across eastern MT has
   aided thunderstorm development/intensification across western ND.
   This activity is evolving just downstream of a pronounced surface
   low primarily south of a well-defined wind shift where low-level
   lapse rates are steep and dew points are holding in the 50s. Latest
   MRMS data suggests large hail is common with this activity and
   storms will likely linger well into the evening hours as LLJ is
   expected to increase across the western Dakotas over the next
   several hours, partly in response to upstream short-wave trough that
   is expected to flatten the northern Plains ridge during the
   overnight hours.

   ..Darrow.. 07/20/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   45000546 48960489 48970135 45020219 45000546 

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