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Mesoscale Discussion 1370
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1370
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0110 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN KS...NRN OK...SWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 141810Z - 142015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL INCREASE ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK.
   COVERAGE MAY TOO ISOLATED FOR WW ISSUANCE...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...AT 18Z...CU WAS DEEPENING ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
   CNTRL KS INTO SWRN MO...TO THE WEST OF ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
   ACROSS CNTRL MO. WHILE CONVERGENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ALONG
   THIS BOUNDARY...CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL PROMOTE TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE STRONGER FLOW AND
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
   ONLY GLANCE THIS AREA...EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
   ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
   AND HAIL. AT THIS TIME...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS CONSIDERED
   UNLIKELY DUE TO ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED.

   ..DEAN/HART.. 07/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   36879409 36589702 36869906 37090051 37910063 38710113
               38339789 38349499 38519383 38379363 38069319 37839273
               37079264 36989268 36879409 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2014
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