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Mesoscale Discussion 1370
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1370
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0636 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN IL...AND FAR ERN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 402...

   VALID 112336Z - 120100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 402
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PERSISTING ACROSS
   PRIMARILY THE SWRN HALF OF WW 402...AND SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
   SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT CONTINUING ACROSS THIS AREA PAST THE 01Z
   EXPIRATION. AS SUCH...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW
   REPLACEMENT OR TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF WW 402.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
   EXTENDING FROM FAR NERN MO SEWD TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY HAS BEEN
   REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW FROM SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRIOR CONVECTION
   ACROSS/NEAR WW 402. THUS...THE RESULTANT GRADIENT IN BUOYANCY IS
   QUITE SHARP...WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF
   THIS BOUNDARY /PER MESOANALYSIS DATA/. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ARE RELATIVELY MODEST...CONSIDERABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT /E.G.
   APPROX 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR PER REGIONAL VWP DATA AND
   MESOANALYSIS/ SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY TO
   YIELD SOME MAINTENANCE OF THE SEVERE THREAT PAST 01Z.
   INDEED...EARLIER KILX POLARIMETRIC DATA AROUND 2300Z SUGGESTED
   VIGOROUS HAIL GROWTH ALOFT OVER SERN CASS COUNTY...EXHIBITING A
   ROBUST TBSS AND FAIRLY LOW CORRELATION COEFFICIENT WITHIN THE
   REFLECTIVITY CORE AROUND 20-25K FT AGL. MOREOVER...MODEST LOW-LEVEL
   THETA-E ADVECTION ABOVE THE OUTFLOW POOL MAY FURTHER AID CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF WW 402 OR
   ISSUANCE OF A NEW WATCH.

   ..PICCA.. 07/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40539134 40609031 40368955 39658879 39138839 38788825
               38478880 38629024 39459158 40159197 40539134 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2015
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