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Mesoscale Discussion 1371
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1371
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL MO...SCNTRL IL...IND...FAR SW MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 417...

   VALID 141921Z - 142015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 417
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
   HOURS FROM ERN MO NEWD ACROSS SCNTRL IL INTO CNTRL INDIANA. WIND
   DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY EARLY EVENING BUT AN
   ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT TO THE EAST OF WW 417.

   DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   IS ONGOING FROM NW INDIANA SWWD TO NEAR ST LOUIS MO AND WSWWD CROSS
   CNTRL MO. THE LINE IS LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
   WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. THE
   INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE
   EVIDENT ON WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A THREAT
   FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. AS THE LINE MOVES
   INTO THE ERN PART OF THE WATCH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL BEGIN
   TO ENCOUNTER AN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE
   OH RIVER IN SRN IL NEWD ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF INDIANA. THE LINE
   IS TIMED TO APPROACH THIS CORRIDOR OF WEAKER INSTABILITY TOWARD THE
   23Z EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 417. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE ISOLATED
   SEVERE THREAT BY EARLY EVENING.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
   SGF...

   LAT...LON   41768644 40428771 39528877 38729073 38359226 37439222
               37228988 38188747 39968507 41518494 41768644 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2014
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