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Mesoscale Discussion 1371
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1371
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0651 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CO...KS...NE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 112351Z - 120115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NUMBER OF STORMS AND
   OVERALL ANTICIPATED DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
   WARRANT A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED
   ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN KS AND MUCH OF NEB GIVEN HIGH TEMPERATURES
   NEARING 100F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND 70S F. ROBUST STORMS HAVE
   CONSOLIDATED TO THE NORTH OF THERMAL LOW IN RAWLINS COUNTY KS WHILE
   ADDITIONAL CONVECTION INITIATED ON A LOCALLY OUTFLOW-REINFORCED LEE
   TROUGH/RETREATING DRYLINE BISECTING NEB FROM EAST OF SNY TO BETWEEN
   VTN/ANW. SURFACE STREAMLINES ANALYZED AT 23 UTC EXHIBIT A
   DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF
   THE DRYLINE AND NORTH OF THE NEB/KS BORDER. STORMS THAT INITIATED ON
   THE CONVERGENT TROUGH/DRYLINE IN NEB HAVE STRUGGLED TO PERSIST
   DESPITE THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR RESULTING FROM
   ABOUT 30KT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW. GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE
   SHORT-TERM APPEARS TO BE WITH ISOLATED BUT PERSISTENT STORMS IN NWRN
   KS. HERE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AN INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF
   THE CONVECTION...AND NORTH OF THE THERMAL LOW...MAY ACT TO MAINTAIN
   THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS FOR AWHILE LONGER. EXPECT LOCALLY LARGE
   HAIL...AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS...TO MOVE EAST ACROSS PARTS OF
   DECATUR...SHERIDAN...AND POSSIBLY GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES...OVER
   THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE STORM
   THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ..CARBIN/EDWARDS.. 07/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42870077 42939977 42259856 41569845 41119832 40159814
               39499837 39370061 38970225 39750249 40400273 40920301
               41350279 42870077 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2015
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