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Mesoscale Discussion 1372
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0904 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ND...SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 403...

   VALID 120204Z - 120330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 403
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SOME CHANCE STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITHIN
   WATCH 403 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WRN
   PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA...FROM BURKE AND RENVILLE COUNTIES SOUTH
   TO GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES IN ND...HAVE BEEN CLEARED.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG INSTABILITY PERSISTS ALONG A NW-SE AXIS ACROSS
   CENTRAL AND ERN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. RECENT SOUNDING
   FROM KBIS SHOWED UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODEST SPEED
   AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER.
   EARLIER CONVECTION WAS LIKELY AIDED BY COMBINATION OF DIABATIC AND
   SYNOPTIC INFLUENCES IN THE FORM OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE
   OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE REGION STILL LIES BENEATH BROADLY
   DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO SPREAD
   NORTHEAST WITHIN THE FASTER SWLY AIRSTREAM BETWEEN THE WRN U.S.
   UPPER TROUGH AND SRN U.S. ANTICYCLONE. WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
   LLJ AND AT LEAST NEUTRAL LARGE SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE REGION...IT
   SEEMS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER...LATEST
   GUIDANCE WAS NOT INDICATING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
   DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND THE WATCH MAY BE CANCELED FOR SOME OR ALL
   OF THE REGION PRIOR TO SCHEDULED EXPIRATION AT 0600 UTC/1 AM CDT.

   ..CARBIN/EDWARDS.. 07/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44549712 44549784 44549786 44639870 44900040 45930200
               48110283 48360288 48720294 48810294 48880294 48880294
               49000294 49009794 45939655 45299644 45279644 45209644
               44729644 44549644 44549644 44549712 44549712 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2015
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