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Mesoscale Discussion 1372
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MT...NRN/ERN ID...NWRN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 141927Z - 142100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. A SEVERE TSTM
   WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 20-21Z.

   DISCUSSION...1915Z WV IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN
   WA/ORE...WITH TSTM ACTIVITY GRADUALLY INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS
   FEATURE FROM ID INTO WRN MT. WHILE REMNANT CLOUDINESS FROM EARLIER
   CONVECTION HAS DELAYED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
   AREA...RECENT CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 80S AND
   90S ACROSS MUCH OF ID AND PARTS OF WRN MT. CONTINUED HEATING WILL
   SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY...WHILE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
   AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. 

   ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH BOTH SUPERCELLS AND
   BOWING SEGMENTS POSSIBLE THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
   WIND AND HAIL. SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE IS CONSIDERED LIKELY BY
   20-21Z.

   ..DEAN/HART.. 07/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...

   LAT...LON   42811258 43301469 44961517 47151645 48261663 48571602
               48551499 47721427 46831327 46111225 45451109 44220924
               43290949 42811258 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2014
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