MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1373
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1201 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN GA...NORTHERN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 291701Z - 291900Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
   SOUTHERN GA AND NORTH FL THIS AFTERNOON.  BRIEF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
   ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CELLS.  A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW INCREASING TCU AND ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHERN FL. 
   TWO ZONES OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE INDICATED IN
   SURFACE/SATELLITE DATA...ONE EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF SAV TO SOUTH OF
   DHN...AND THE OTHER ACROSS FAR NORTH FL.  THIS AREA IS VERY MOIST
   AND UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS THE MID 70S AND MLCAPE VALUES 2000-3000
   J/KG WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LIKELY.  MORNING RAOBS ALSO SHOWED
   SUBSTANTIAL WATER CONTENT WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT
   WITH A FEW LAYERS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS.  THIS COMBINATION
   MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW INTENSE WET MICROBURSTS THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON.  RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
   ORGANIZATION TO PULSE OR DISORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
   
   ..HART.. 06/29/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB...
   
   LAT...LON   31348463 31638282 30768144 29938092 29588174 29578353
               29508517 30268631 30798671 31188637 31348463