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Mesoscale Discussion 1373
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1373
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0957 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN MO...CNTRL/SRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 404...

   VALID 120257Z - 120430Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 404
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS
   WITHIN/IN THE VICINITY OF WW 404. WHILE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A
   STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...THE
   OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

   DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT IS MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM FAR
   NRN MO SEWD INTO W-CNTRL IL THIS EVENING. MOREOVER...REGIONAL VWP
   DATA/FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODEST LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ATOP
   THIS BOUNDARY IS AIDING CONVECTION AS WELL. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING VIA CONVECTIVE
   OVERTURNING AND SLOW BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING...COLD-POOL/CELL
   MERGERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD MAINTAIN A MARGINAL THREAT
   FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. INDEED...KUIN OBSERVED A PEAK
   GUST OF 44 KTS AT 0215Z...AND THE LATEST KLSX DATA ILLUSTRATE
   RELATIVELY PRONOUNCED SWD PROPAGATION WITH NEW CONVECTION NEAR PIKE
   COUNTY IL...SUGGESTING SOME STRONG-GUST POTENTIAL PERSISTS.

   ..PICCA.. 07/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38788881 38298980 38199020 38429059 38999120 39439157
               40119226 40409236 40489171 40369047 40028901 39478861
               38788881 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2015
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