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Mesoscale Discussion 1374
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1374
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0317 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...WRN AND SRN OK...NW TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 142017Z - 142145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE
   AFTERNOON FROM THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES EWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AND
   CNTRL OK. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELL COVERAGE
   INCREASES. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREATS...WW ISSUANCE
   APPEARS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD
   THROUGH SRN KS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES EWD INTO
   CNTRL OK...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F AND
   MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED BY THE RAP TO BE IN THE 1500 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE.
   ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD
   AREA...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME QUITE STEEP. IN
   ADDITION...SFC WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
   THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE ABOUT
   2 KM AGL EVIDENT ON THE FREDERICK WSR-88D VWP SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH MULTICELLS THAT INITIATE THIS
   AFTERNOON. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS LOCATED NEAR
   LOCALLY MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35699596 34479630 33999823 33869935 34110115 34880251
               36590259 36900154 36410006 35809743 35699596 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2014
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