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Mesoscale Discussion 1374
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1374
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IND THROUGH ERN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 120857Z - 121100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO
   MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS THEY MOVE SEWD
   THROUGH SERN INDIANA AND NERN KY. A WW ISSUANCE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
   NECESSARY UNLESS CONVECTIVE TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING AN MCS WAS INDICATED OVER SERN IND
   WHERE SOME ORGANIZED STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED INCLUDING A
   ROTATING COMMA HEAD AND BOWING SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...THE LINE IS
   MOVING SEWD AT ONLY 30-35 KT. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND
   JUST ON THE COOLER SIDE OF A NW-SE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT WHERE A
   WSWLY LLJ INTERSECTING THIS BOUNDARY IS AUGMENTING ASCENT AND MOIST
   INFLOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE NEXT
   FEW HOURS AS IT CROSSES INTO NRN KY. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION
   IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG AND WEAK LAPSE
   RATES. THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST /25-35 KT/ DEEP LAYER
   WNWLY WINDS. THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS AND A
   STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD TEND TO MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR A MORE
   ROBUST SEVERE EVENT. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
   SEVERE CONVECTIVE GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES
   SEWD.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 07/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   39138510 38728425 38298381 37698377 37438476 38088525
               38748566 39138510 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2015
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