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Mesoscale Discussion 1375
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1375
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1005 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL MN/NORTHWEST TO NORTH
   WI...AND FAR WESTERN UPPER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 121505Z - 121630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STONES
   APPROACHING 1 INCH AND PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL POSE A
   MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
   ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL MN /NORTH OF THE TWIN
   CITIES...CLOSER TO DULUTH/...AND INTO NORTHWEST WI...AND PERHAPS FAR
   WESTERN UPPER MI.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...THOUGH
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND GOES-R CLOUD TOP COOLING AND
   OVERSHOOTING TOP PRODUCTS HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A FEW STRONG
   STORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MN /CROW WING AND AITKIN
   COUNTIES/ WITH GOES-R PRODUCTS SHOWING MOST RECENT OVERSHOOTING TOP
   IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN /SHIFTING EAST FROM BELTRAMI INTO ITASCA
   COUNTIES/.  MID MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A PORTION OF A WARM
   FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...AND THEN
   SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MN...WITH THE ONGOING TSTMS LOCATED WELL
   NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THIS FRONT.  STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ELEVATED
   THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
   ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING SUSTAINED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA WITHIN THE TERMINUS
   OF A 15-25 KT SWLY LLJ AND ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A LOW AMPLITUDE
   MIDLEVEL IMPULSE.  DESPITE THESE FACTORS FOR FORCING FOR ASCENT AS
   THE IMPULSE TOPS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF AN UPPER RIDGE...RELATIVELY
   WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE LIMITING HAIL GROWTH SO FAR
   THIS MORNING WITH MOST REPORTS REMAINING SUB-SEVERE COMBINED WITH
   HEAVY RAINFALL.

   HOWEVER...SINCE ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO EXIST TO
   SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS...STRONGER CORES COULD PROVE FAVORABLE AT PRODUCING
   NEAR SEVERE AND/OR SEVERE HAIL.  MOST CAMS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS
   SUGGEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH SOME DIMINISHING TREND
   SUCH THAT A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WOULD NOT BE WARRANTED...BUT THE THIS
   REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR UPSCALE GROWTH AS SUGGESTED
   BY THE 00Z 4-KM NSSL AND 00Z ARW HIGH-RES.

   ..PETERS/HART.. 07/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   47219471 48549492 48709477 48489270 47969134 47289051
               46628966 45508997 45329072 45379194 45779324 47219471 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2015
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