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Mesoscale Discussion 1375
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1375
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE PA...FAR SE NY...NJ...DE...MD...NRN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418...

   VALID 142039Z - 142215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC NEWD TO THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK
   CITY. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS CELLS MOVE
   ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN PART OF WW 418 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING MAINLY ACROSS THE
   WRN AND CNTRL PART OF WW 418 ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF A CORRIDOR OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE RAP IS ESTIMATING MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO
   2500 J/KG RANGE FROM NRN VA NEWD ACROSS DE INTO SRN NJ. THE MODERATE
   INSTABILITY IS ACCOMPANIED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F. IN
   ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
   WRN AND CNTRL PA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONCERNING THE SHEAR
   ENVIRONMENT...THE WSR-88D VWP AT BALTIMORE MD SHOWS A UNIDIRECTIONAL
   WIND PROFILE WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH THE
   VERY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS. THE
   DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MOST PROMINENT WITH BOWING
   LINE SEGMENTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS MOVE INTO THE
   STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS MD...DE AND SRN NJ LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
   RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   37947634 38137671 38277698 38147709 38217733 38017769
               38167808 38127820 37547885 37877918 38107943 38267981
               38917948 38907934 39147929 39197946 39417910 39717893
               39697881 40007870 40347855 40257831 40117804 40057786
               40487730 40707658 40787631 40967623 40897598 41047575
               41137569 41267544 41287513 41107503 41127486 41367467
               41477475 41497455 41617424 41607399 41477399 41497358
               41687349 41527342 41527321 41627299 41537291 41607277
               41447265 41257252 41267290 40887310 40937345 40637341
               40597369 40597324 40317320 40267362 39477387 38997436
               38617466 38377471 38457505 38607506 38437518 38497566
               38747581 38637599 38647615 38517635 38307622 38337601
               38387591 38237590 38297576 38047580 38027576 37867590
               37877621 37947634 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2014
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