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Mesoscale Discussion 1376
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1376
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1219 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 121719Z - 121845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE AS TSTM ACTIVITY
   CONTINUES. ISOLATED AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT WILL
   PREVENT THE NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA...PROVIDING IN
   THE IMPETUS FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TSTMS. 12Z TBW SOUNDING SAMPLED A
   VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A PW VALUE OF 1.97
   INCHES /NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE BASED ON SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY/.
   THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOW
   90S IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS
   ESTIMATED MLCAPE OVER 2500 J PER KG. KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
   WEAK...SUGGESTING A MAINLY PULSE STORM MODE. PRIMARY THREAT IS SOME
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS RESULTING FROM CELL MERGERS AND/OR PRECIP
   LOADING. MARGINAL SVR THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WW.

   ..MOSIER/HART.. 07/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   29418223 29128178 28908162 28468147 27808136 27378155
               27168177 27188207 27268218 27498221 27778226 27948235
               28328246 28538262 29058301 29448293 29518261 29418223 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2015
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