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Mesoscale Discussion 1376
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1376
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF UPSTATE NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 142042Z - 142215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
   2-3 HRS...WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
   BRIEF TORNADO. LIMITED COVERAGE AND DURATION MAKE WW ISSUANCE
   UNCERTAIN.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
   LAST 1-2 HRS...WITH SOME ROTATION NOTED IN THE CELL NORTH OF PEO IN
   ONTARIO COUNTY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
   GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUFFICIENT WARMING HAS
   RESULTED IN MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...PER MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS.
   LOCALLY BACKED FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IS
   RESULTING IN ENHANCED 0-3KM HELICITY OF 150-250 M2/S2...SUFFICIENT
   FOR SUPERCELLS IN AREAS WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS NOT NEGLIGIBLE.
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THESE CELLS FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HRS...THOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE
   THREAT WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING GIVEN THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF
   INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN
   POTENTIALLY LIMITED DURATION AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT...BUT
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..DEAN/HART.. 07/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   42037924 42357944 42787868 43387581 43427510 43067474
               42787464 42417496 42027562 42037924 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2014
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