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Mesoscale Discussion 1377
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...TN...NRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419...

   VALID 142057Z - 142230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WW 419 THROUGH
   EARLY EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD
   ACROSS SRN IL...SE MO AND NW AR. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   EXISTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER
   60S AND LOWER 70S F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO POCKET OF STRONG
   INSTABILITY IN NERN AR WHERE THE RAP IS ESTIMATING MLCAPE IN THE
   3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. THIS SHOULD FUEL A BOWING LINE SEGMENT
   CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH NERN AR. DUE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES EVIDENT ON THE MEMPHIS WSR-88D
   VWP...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. HAIL WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE
   LINE. THIS THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY AFFECT WRN TN LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE EAST...ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
   ONGOING ALONG A GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO THE WEST OF
   NASHVILLE. AS THIS LINE MOVES INTO THE ERN PART OF THE WATCH...THE
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34938605 34908818 34709025 34739225 35449290 36239228
               36468590 35548519 34938605 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2014
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