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Mesoscale Discussion 1377
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1237 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL KY/MIDDLE AND EAST TN/FAR NORTH GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 121737Z - 122000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY INTO MIDDLE AND EAST TN AND FAR
   NORTH GA...POTENTIALLY BECOMING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG
   WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CORES.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO
   THE EARLY AFTERNOON HAD WEAKENED THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY ALLOWING FOR
   NEW SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CENTRAL KY SSEWD THROUGH
   PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND EAST TN TO FAR NORTH GA.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
   GENERALLY DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED WARM
   FRONT ANALYZED ON A MID-DAY SURFACE MAP EXTENDING FROM AN AREA OF
   LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL IND THROUGH CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN
   /BETWEEN BNA AND CSV/ INTO NORTH GA.  DESPITE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...THE SURFACE HEATING OF A RATHER MOIST AIR MASS /PW VALUES
   AROUND 1.75 INCHES/ HAS RESULTED IN MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY
   ALREADY WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.

   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE THAT LIKELY AIDED
   TSTMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MO LAST NIGHT AND WAS NOW MOVING SOUTH
   THROUGH CENTRAL KY TOWARD MIDDLE AND EAST TN.  FORCING FOR ASCENT IN
   VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE IMPULSE SHOULD
   SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  WEAK BULK SHEAR SUGGESTS
   STORM MODE SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR.

   ..PETERS/HART.. 07/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   37428568 36908511 36118465 35078378 34438364 34118434
               34298507 34618554 35278598 36358672 37248664 37428568 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2015
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