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Mesoscale Discussion 1378
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1378
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST TO WEST-CENTRAL MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 121954Z - 122130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MN
   ARE BEING MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE WITH EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST
   MN EXPECTED TO HAVE A WATCH COORDINATED FOR AND ISSUED SOON.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW
   PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST ND NEAR THE SD BORDER WITH A WELL DEFINED WARM
   FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST SD AND
   ADJACENT WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTHEAST IA.  THE
   PORTION OF THIS FRONT IN WEST-CENTRAL MN HAS BEEN RE-ENFORCED BY A
   WWD MOVING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER
   EAST-CENTRAL MN.  MEANWHILE...A BOUNDARY EXTENDED GENERALLY N-S
   ACROSS CENTRAL ND TO A SECOND LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.  
   STRONG HEATING ALONG THIS LATTER N-S BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH COOLING
   MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AS CONFIRMED BY SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDINGS IN
   EXTREME SRN MANITOBA AND AT INL ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS ND.  THESE THERMODYNAMICS COMBINED
   WITH A VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER /SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S HAVE
   RESULTED IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  

   FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE N-S BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL ND APPEARS TO BE
   SUPPORTING A RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
   NORTH-CENTRAL ND PER TRENDS IN MRMS 5-9-KM CAPPI DATA. 
   STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS WITH
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS GIVEN THE DEGREE
   OF INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAKER ACROSS EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN
   SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
   ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS COMPARED TO POINTS
   FARTHER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

   ..PETERS/HART.. 07/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46019729 46829852 47749985 48969991 49049467 47509440
               46339431 46099456 45759517 45719580 45759683 46019729 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2015
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