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Mesoscale Discussion 1379
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1379
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0511 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX PANHANDLE...W-CNTRL NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 142211Z - 150015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR NW TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NE NM
   IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SWD/SEWD WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
   ALONG NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. ENVIRONMENT IS
   WEAKLY SHEARED BUT SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
   MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE
   NEED FOR A WW BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS FAR NW TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NE NM
   WILL CONTINUE TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE INTO AN UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED
   AIRMASS ACROSS THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AND W-CNTRL NM.
   ADDITIONALLY...NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION
   WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION POSSIBLE ALONG ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES.
   OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY SHEARED WITH AMA VAD ONLY REPORTING 25
   KT AT 5 KM. THIS LACK OF SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY LOOSELY
   ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITH A MAINLY MULTICELL MODE. THE EXCEPTION MAY
   BE THE FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE WHERE COLD POOL
   AMALGAMATION/ORGANIZATION MAY OCCUR...RESULTING IN MORE PERSISTENCE
   OF STRONG UPDRAFTS.

   BOUNDARY LAYER IS FAIRLY WELL-MIXED WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 8
   DEG C PER KM AND CLOUD BASES LIKELY AROUND 5-6 KFT. THIS TYPE OF
   ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR A PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OF DAMAGING
   WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS....PARTICULARLY WITH ANY CELL MERGERS. UNCERTAINTY
   REGARDING CONVECTIVE TRENDS...PARTICULARLY THE FORWARD-PROPAGATING
   LINE...RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE AND LOWER WATCH PROBABILITIES.
   ADDITIONALLY...EVEN IF THE LINE ORGANIZES...OVERALL SVR THREAT
   APPEARS MARGINAL. AS A RESULT...A WW SEEMS UNLIKELY BUT TRENDS
   ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED.

   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 07/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35890395 36450347 36280224 35300166 34210168 33870337
               34530418 35460415 35890395 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2014
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