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Mesoscale Discussion 1379
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1379
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SW MN...FAR NW IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 122053Z - 122215Z

   CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SVR TSTMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
   POTENTIALLY A TORNADO OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PART OF
   THIS REGION. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING OF
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION...A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE TSTMS DO
   DEVELOP.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING THROUGH CNTRL SD. ASCENT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE IS CONTRIBUTING
   TO THE ACCAS FIELD ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER AS WELL AS THE ELEVATED
   TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS ERN ND AND W-CNTRL MN.
   SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO REVEALS A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM A LOW
   OVER SW MANITOBA THROUGH THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY HAS RECENTLY SHOWN AN INCREASE IN CU ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
   AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
   VERY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
   70S...AND MLCAPE ESTIMATED OVER 4000 J PER KG. 

   THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   OCCURS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT APPEARS SOME MODEST LARGE
   SCALE HEIGHT RISES ARE IMPINGING ON THE AREA. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS
   CONSISTENT THAT INITIATION DOES OCCUR. ONCE INITIATION
   OCCURS...EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS
   AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR LEADING TO AN INITIAL SUPERCELL MODE. AS A
   RESULT...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE ALL
   POSSIBLE.. TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH
   WW ISSUANCE LIKELY NEEDED TO COVER THE EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT ONCE
   INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT.

   ..MOSIER/HART.. 07/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   42829643 42949681 43689734 45179733 45719706 45869682
               45919647 45819598 45489553 44919504 44249459 43379457
               42859514 42829643 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2015
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