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Mesoscale Discussion 1380
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1380
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0553 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...TN...E-CNTRL AR...N MS/AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419...

   VALID 142253Z - 150030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE RISK HAS LIKELY PEAKED WITHIN WW 419...BUT
   STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS FOR
   A FEW MORE HOURS. WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AND WEAKER SHEAR
   WITH SRN EXTENT SUGGEST THAT AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...EARLIER ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES OVER MIDDLE TN
   AND NE AR HAVE WEAKENED DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE MOST PROMINENT
   COLD POOL STRUCTURE STILL REMAINS WITH THE WRN MCS WHICH IS JUST
   ABOUT TO MERGE WITH A W/E-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SW TN.
   THIS SHOULD FORCE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FARTHER S INTO N MS AND
   EVENTUALLY N AL. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
   90S TO THE S...WEAK LOW-LEVEL W/SWLYS PER GWX/HTX VWP DATA...ALONG
   WITH ORIENTATION OF THE OUTFLOW NEARLY PARALLELING THIS TYPE OF FLOW
   APPEAR UNLIKELY TO FAVOR ROBUST ORGANIZATION. STILL...STRONG WIND
   GUSTS /REF 39 KT MEASURED AT KAWM AT 2232Z/ WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...
   LZK...

   LAT...LON   36448952 36188863 35938808 35778732 35888633 36198541
               36318490 36338434 36138411 35788409 34498560 34038748
               33988986 34249192 34739217 35119103 35399029 35919005
               36259002 36448952 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2014
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