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Mesoscale Discussion 1381
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1381
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0553 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ND...MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405...

   VALID 122253Z - 130030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TWO CLUSTERS OF INTENSE STORMS MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF WRN
   AND NRN MN WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A
   TORNADO OR TWO. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL EXIST OVER
   KITTSON...MARSHAL...AND ROSEAU COUNTIES...IN NWRN MN...AND GRANT AND
   OTTER TAIL COUNTIES IN WEST-CNTRL MN...OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...TWO CLUSTERS OF INTENSE STORMS APPEAR TO BE LOCATED
   VERY NEAR OR COINCIDENT WITH WEAK FRONTAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
   HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A STRONG WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM NEAR
   THE ND/MN BORDER. NRN CLUSTER CONSOLIDATION APPEARS TO HAVE BROAD
   ROTATION AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS AN AXIS OF STRONG
   INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. RECENT SIGNS OF UPSCALE GROWTH
   COULD BE AN INDICATION OF AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH
   THESE STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP EAST ACROSS KITTSON...MARSHAL...AND
   ROSEAU COUNTIES...AND EVENTUALLY INTO LAKE OF THE WOODS AND BELTRAMI
   COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   THE STORM COMPLEX ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA WAS ALSO
   EXHIBITING ROTATION AND WAS ANCHORED BY AN INTENSE SUPERCELL OVER
   OTTER TAIL COUNTY. THIS VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION WAS VERY NEAR THE
   SFC WARM FRONT WHERE STRONGER EFFECTIVE SRH AND LOWER LFC SHOULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR A TORNADO IN THE SHORT-TERM.
   THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS MOST LIKELY OVER NRN GRANT COUNTY AND WILL
   MOVE TOWARD DOUGLAS COUNTY...AND TORNADO WATCH 406...WITHIN THE NEXT
   HOUR.

   ..CARBIN/EDWARDS.. 07/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45759601 45759605 45759625 45939801 47849980 48029984
               48139984 48349984 48369984 49009952 49389515 49369495
               49369494 49319481 48709443 48029441 47599441 47509441
               47439441 47409441 46369473 46119515 45759576 45759587
               45759601 45759601 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2015
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