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Mesoscale Discussion 1381
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1381
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0559 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418...

   VALID 142259Z - 150000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...WITH WW 418 SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z...PORTIONS OF WW
   COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED WITH TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
   EVENING. BUT OVERALL SEVERE RISK APPEARS MARGINAL WITH GENERALLY
   ONLY STRONG WIND GUSTS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL TSTM CLUSTERS EXIST FROM THE TRI-STATE AREA
   AROUND THE NYC METRO SW INTO CNTRL VA. DESPITE 25-35 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR
   IN LWX/DIX/OKX VWP DATA...CONVECTION HAS NOT APPEARED TERRIBLY
   ORGANIZED OUTSIDE OF AN EARLIER BOWING STRUCTURE THAT HAS RECENTLY
   WEAKENED E OF THE BALTIMORE AREA. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL IN
   THE 80S WHERE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS YET TO OCCUR...CONVECTION
   SHOULD PERSIST THIS EVENING. BUT OVERALL ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
   SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST INTENSIFICATION...SUGGESTING THAT DAMAGING WIND
   RISK SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND GRADUALLY WANE.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38487678 39647589 40857476 41507377 41887288 41777229
               41607201 41337206 40627330 39067479 37877596 37447677
               37507723 37737758 38017738 38487678 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2014
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