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Mesoscale Discussion 1382
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1382
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

   Areas affected...Central Nebraska...northwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 212043Z - 212215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop the remainder of
   this afternoon and continue into the evening hours.  Isolated
   instances of damaging winds and perhaps hail can be expected.  A
   watch is not anticipated due to the isolated nature of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus clouds were increasing in vertical
   extent in the vicinity of a surface trough across northeast through
   central Nebraska at 2030Z, and a small area of thunderstorms has
   developed across northwest Kansas.  Intense diurnal heating of a
   moist (PW values of 1.5 to 1.9 inches) air mass has resulted in
   strong surface-based instability with MLCAPE of 3000-4000 j/kg. 
   Modest westerly mid-level flow has contributed to effective shear of
   20-35 kts, sufficient for some degree of organization, including
   isolated supercell structures given the degree of instability. 
   Water loading in updrafts and strong DCAPE will promote a risk for
   damaging gusts with the strongest storms through early evening, and
   a few instances of hail will also be possible.  Overall risk appears
   to be relatively confined in space and time, and a watch is not
   currently anticipated.

   ..Bunting/Dial.. 07/21/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40049903 39730048 39780104 40450066 40940023 41250014
               41590001 41859997 42109964 42239889 42279843 42279812
               42109781 41769753 41139758 40329794 40049903 

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