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Mesoscale Discussion 1382
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1382
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0606 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 142306Z - 150000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WWD/NWWD WITH AT
   LEAST SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR ORGANIZATION AND A
   WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL AZ
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED
   CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   REGION IN THE LOW 60S. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RESULTANT
   DECREASE IN TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS -- AS WELL AS LCL HEIGHT --
   LOWERS THE DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL AS STORMS SPREAD INTO THE LOWER
   DESERT. HOWEVER...THE INCREASED MOISTURE INCREASES OVERALL
   INSTABILITY WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY ESTIMATING MLCAPE NEAR
   1500 J PER KG. STORM COVERAGE HAS ALSO INCREASED AS A RESULT OF THE
   BETTER MOISTURE. 

   AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SUGGEST MOSTLY SLY FLOW ACROSS SRN
   AZ...TURNING MORE ELY AROUND FGZ. AS A RESULT...ACTIVITY N OF TUS
   WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PROGRESSING NWWD TOWARDS PHX. AT THE SAME
   TIME...ACTIVITY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD
   TOWARDS PHX. DESPITE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
   TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...CELL MERGERS AND POTENTIAL COOL POOL
   AMALGAMATION MAY RESULT IN A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND
   HAIL NEAR AND E OF PHX. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WATCH MAY BE
   NEEDED TO COVER THIS THREAT.

   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 07/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   34821325 35391270 35161202 33971067 32630958 31870991
               31781076 32201215 32821296 34821325 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2014
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