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Mesoscale Discussion 1382
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1382
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0751 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MN...FAR ERN SD...NRN
   IA...FAR WRN WI

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 406...

   VALID 130051Z - 130245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 406 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ORGANIZING COMPLEX OF SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD
   ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MN THIS EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY
   SEVERE THREAT TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 0030Z...AN EXPANSIVE COMPLEX OF SEVERE CONVECTION
   WAS ORGANIZING OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL MN...AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE NEAR A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM A SFC LOW IN ERN ND.
   ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COMPLEX...EXCEPTIONAL BUOYANCY /E.G.
   MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 4000-5000 J PER KG/ IS SUSTAINING NEW
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING S/SEWD PROPAGATION. RADAR-DEPICTED
   INFLOW VELOCITIES HAVE EXHIBITED A TENDENCY TO RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH
   NASCENT CONVECTION ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THE LINE...SUGGESTIVE OF
   INTENSE UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT FROM AMPLE BUOYANCY AHEAD OF THE LINE.
   MOREOVER...WITH SFC TEMPS BEHIND THE LINE NOW IN THE MID/UPPER
   60S...A MATURING COLD POOL SHOULD FAVOR A RAPID SEWD ACCELERATION OF
   THE LINE. AS SUCH...THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING
   TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS...AND IT SHOULD PERSIST AS THE COMPLEX
   PROGRESSES SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT TOWARDS THE TWIN
   CITIES/POINTS WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR
   TWO WILL CONTINUE...PRIMARILY NEAR THE FRONT WHERE SRH IS ENHANCED.

   FARTHER S/SW ACROSS ERN SD/SWRN MN/NRN IA...DESPITE STRONG
   BUOYANCY...CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL...POSSIBLY DUE TO A
   COMBINATION OF DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INSUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT
   QUESTIONABLE ACROSS THIS PORTION OF WW 406...AND MORE COUNTIES MAY
   BE CLEARED EARLY IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

   ..PICCA.. 07/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45589618 46109538 46459425 46499356 45179220 44299179
               43669287 43179423 43159538 44769655 45119648 45589618 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2015
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