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Mesoscale Discussion 1383
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1383
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0816 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ND...MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405...

   VALID 130116Z - 130215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING
   WINDS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OVER PORTIONS OF ERN ND AND NWRN MN THIS
   EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE
   WATCH AREA WITH TWO WELL-DEFINED MESO-HIGH CENTERS SITUATED ACROSS
   WRN MN AND OUTFLOW-STABILIZED AIR EMANATING FROM BOTH. CORRIDORS OF
   UNPERTURBED/UNSTABLE AIR REMAIN AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO WATCH EXPIRATION AT 03
   UTC/10 PM CDT. A MODEST COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE WRN EDGE OF
   THE WATCH WITH QUASI-LINEAR DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ON THIS BOUNDARY
   AS IT MOVES EAST INTO REMAINING INSTABILITY OVER ERN ND. AT PRESENT
   SPEED OF 40KT THIS CONVECTION WILL BE WELL INTO THE STABILIZED AIR
   ACROSS NWRN MN BY 03 UTC. ELSEWHERE...A LINE OF VIGOROUS STORMS
   ERUPTED EARLIER AMIDST THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE
   TWO COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM NORMAN COUNTY NEWD TO WRN
   BELTRAMI COUNTY MN. IT APPEARS THIS CONVECTION WAS ENCOUNTERING
   LIMITED BUOYANCY IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER ACTIVITY. CURRENT
   INDICATIONS SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ENDING AROUND
   THE TIME OF SCHEDULED WATCH EXPIRATION.

   ..CARBIN/EDWARDS.. 07/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45759601 45759605 45759625 45939801 47849980 48029984
               48139984 48349984 48369984 49009952 49389515 49369495
               49369494 49319481 48709443 48029441 47599441 47509441
               47439441 47409441 46369473 46119515 45759576 45759587
               45759601 45759601 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2015
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