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Mesoscale Discussion 1383
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1383
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0353 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of northwest MN...southeast ND...north
   central and northeast SD

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428...

   Valid 212053Z - 212230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe weather threat for Watch 428 continues.

   DISCUSSION...A threat for severe wind gusts and hail continues in
   the Watch area, with the main threat in the short term ahead of the
   supercell in Griggs County, ND, which is expected to maintain a
   threat for significant hail and wind gusts in the next hour or so.

   Convective coverage is increasing rapidly in much of the MN portion
   of the Watch under the influence of the approaching short wave
   trough. Initial storm development appears as scattered discrete
   cells in this area, so a limited tornado threat continues with any
   cells that can attain supercell structures, but is mostly confined
   to a narrow region between the surface trough and a region of much
   drier air over north central MN. Severe wind gusts and hail are also
   possible with this activity.

   Farther south, the convective inhibition has eroded over most of the
   area, and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the
   next hour, mainly along a weak surface trough over central SD.  An
   initial mode of discrete cells is expected that will pose the threat
   for severe wind gusts and hail.  The tornado threat is much lower in
   this portion of the Watch given weak low-level winds/shear and a
   more deeply-mixed boundary layer.

   ..Coniglio/Cohen.. 07/21/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   48159887 48159431 44649833 44630254 48159887 

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