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Mesoscale Discussion 1384
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1384
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0625 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

   Areas affected...Central MN...Southeast ND...Northeast SD

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428...

   Valid 212325Z - 220100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428

   SUMMARY...The threat continues across WW 428, with an increasing
   damaging wind risk associated with the developing bow echo over
   north-central MN. Downstream watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...At 2315Z, a developing bow echo was located over
   north-central MN, with more discrete activity further southwest into
   far southeast ND. Downstream of the bow echo, MLCAPE has increased
   to the 1500-2500 J/kg range, with effective shear of 45-55 kt per
   recent mesoanalyses. This environment will allow continue maturation
   of this system and a continuation of the damaging wind risk for the
   next 1-2 hours at least, before it encounters a more stable and
   capped environment across northeast MN/northern WI. East of the
   watch, a weaker cluster may also pose some isolated damaging wind
   risk into the Duluth area over the next hour or so. 

   Further southwest, weaker convection continues along the trailing
   outflow into west-central MN, while a strong discrete cell is
   located over extreme southeast ND. Strong buoyancy and sufficient
   effective shear will support a continued severe wind and hail risk
   across this area. With time, some upscale growth of convection is
   possible along the outflow boundary and/or evolving out of the
   aforementioned discrete cells, resulting in an increasing severe
   risk across portions of central MN as storms move southeastward,
   though weak low-level flow may temper this threat to some extent. 
   Downstream watch issuance will likely be required into portions of
   central MN to cover this threat.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 07/21/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   46109761 46759634 47369481 47499192 46809213 46069281
               45489403 45249481 45079580 45079680 45449725 45619757
               45839774 46109761 

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