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Mesoscale Discussion 1385
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1385
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0941 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MN AND NRN IA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 406...

   VALID 130241Z - 130415Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 406 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AS THE PRIMARY THREAT HAS SHIFTED TO DAMAGING
   WINDS...PORTIONS OF WW 406 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY A NEW SEVERE
   TSTM WATCH BEFORE 03Z.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO A FAIRLY STOUT MCS LATE
   THIS EVENING...WITH CELLS EXTENDING FROM STEARNS COUNTY TO PINE
   COUNTY MN AS OF 0230Z. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
   NEAR/ALONG A WARM FRONT STRETCHING SEWD INTO FAR WRN WI. AS THE
   MATURE COLD POOL /E.G. SFC PRES RISES OF 2-3 MB PER 2 HRS AND SFC
   TEMPS IN THE 60S/ ADVANCES TO THE SE AROUND 30 KTS...SUFFICIENT
   BUOYANCY AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN VIGOROUS UPDRAFT
   DEVELOPMENT AND A CONTINUATION OF THE WIND THREAT. ALTHOUGH THE
   TORNADO THREAT IS NON-ZERO /ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
   STATIONARY FRONT/...THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   LIKELY NECESSITATE REPLACEMENT OF WW 406 WITH A NEW SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH PRIOR TO 03Z...GENERALLY ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN MN
   AND WRN WI /SEE MCD 1384 FOR MORE DETAILS TO THE EAST OF THIS MCD
   AREA/.

   ..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 07/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   44749563 45709509 46209298 46169216 45039163 44209161
               43599231 42689230 42599302 43619456 44179510 44749563 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2015
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