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Mesoscale Discussion 1387
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE...GA...SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151630Z - 151800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NEWD ACROSS GA INTO SC. DUE TO THE
   ISOLATED AND BRIEF NATURE OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD
   INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND TN VALLEY WITH A BROAD CORRIDOR OF
   VERY MOIST AIR LOCATED FROM THE GULF COAST STATES EXTENDING NEWD
   INTO THE CAROLINAS. MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATES THAT MODERATE
   INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WITH MLCAPE
   ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   IS RELATIVELY WEAK...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BECOMING STEEP ACROSS
   PARTS OF GA AND SC. 0-3 KM LAPSE ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 7.5 TO 8.0
   C/KM RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA. THIS SHOULD ENABLE THE
   STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED WITH SHORT
   LINE SEGMENTS THAT CAN PERSIST IN AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE THE MOST.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   34428273 34428157 34187976 33987914 33537900 32947953
               32358070 31718193 30838312 30258407 30058479 30308561
               30788592 31798481 33068396 34428273 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2014
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