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Mesoscale Discussion 1387
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0200 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...NERN IA INTO WCNTRL AND SWRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407...

   VALID 130700Z - 130900Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS WILL PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS MAINLY OVER ERN HALF OF
   REMAINING PORTION OF WW FROM EXTREME SERN MN THROUGH WCNTRL AND SWRN
   WI INTO EXTREME NERN IA. AT THIS TIME THE OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT
   APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST...AND ANY WW ISSUANCE DOWNSTREAM FROM
   CURRENT WW WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

   DISCUSSION...EXPANSIVE SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL WI SWWD
   THROUGH SERN MN AND IS MOVING SEWD AT 30-35 KT. LATEST OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM NERN IL NWWD THROUGH
   WCNTRL WI WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE SQUALL LINE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE
   STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SEWD AS A FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM
   INTO NERN IA AND SWRN AND SCNTRL WI ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHERE
   CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED BY THE INTERACTION OF A WSWLY LLJ AND THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. DEVELOPMENT INTO WRN PORTION OF WW WHERE GREATER
   INSTABILITY EXISTS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LIMITED BY STRENGTH OF CAP.
   STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST /30-35 KT/ WLY DEEP LAYER WINDS
   WITH 25-35 KT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR. THE LINE REMAINS LARGELY
   SUB-SEVERE...AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY DOES NOT APPEAR
   LIKELY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL STRONG TO DAMAGING GUSTS REMAIN
   POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR BOWING SEGMENT MOVING INTO SRN WI WHERE
   MERGERS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN THE SQUALL LINE AND DOWNSTREAM
   ELEVATED STORMS FORMING WITHIN WARM ADVECTION WING.

   ..DIAL.. 07/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43599224 44039085 44529000 44188957 43578958 42739062
               42789213 43599224 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2015
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