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Mesoscale Discussion 1388
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1223 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NEW YORK CITY...NJ...DE...FAR SE PA...MD...ERN
   VA...NE NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 151723Z - 151900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NE NC
   EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK
   CITY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
   THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN THE SRN
   AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
   SRN PA SWD INTO VA AND NRN NC. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE TROUGH ARE IN
   THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F AND THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. RAP MESOANALYSIS DATA IS
   SUGGESTING THAT TWO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXIST. THE FIRST
   IS LOCATED IN SRN NJ WITH THE SECOND OVER SERN VA AND NERN NC WHERE
   MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE.
   CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WSR-88D VWPS FROM WASHINGTON DC
   NNEWD ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR NEWARK NJ SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
   PROFILES WITH 40 KT OF FLOW IN THE 3 TO 5 KM LAYER. THIS IS CREATING
   MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
   FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. ANY
   SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP SHOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO HAVE A
   WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD BECOME MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL IF CELLS CAN CONGEAL INTO A LARGER LINE SEGMENTS WITH A
   COLD POOL ORGANIZING.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   35057660 35257767 35547860 36487879 37697806 38357787
               39497693 40187567 41007426 41087332 40697282 40327329
               39357429 38007550 36657611 35737571 35057660 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2014
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