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Mesoscale Discussion 1388
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI THROUGH NRN IL AND NWRN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 130849Z - 131045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG
   TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH SRN WI AND NRN
   IL EARLY THIS MORNING. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A
   WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
   FROM SRN IND THROUGH NERN IL INTO SCNTRL WI WHERE IT INTERSECTS A
   CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM
   NERN WI SWWD THROUGH SWRN WI AND IS MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 35-40 KT.
   THE STRONGER STORMS WITHIN THIS LINE ARE OVER SCNTRL WI WHERE
   NUMEROUS MERGERS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN STORMS WITHIN THE LINE AND
   STORMS DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THE INTERACTION OF A SWLY LLJ AND THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE LINE SEWD ALONG INSTABILITY
   GRADIENT NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE /1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE/ OVER NRN IL. CURRENT VWP FROM
   CHICAGO INDICATES MODEST /20-30 KT/ WINDS IN THE 1-4 KM LAYER.
   HOWEVER...A BELT OF 35-45 KT MID-LEVEL WINDS WITHIN THE BASE OF AN
   UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
   EWD INTO NRN IL THIS MORNING WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. SOME OF THE STORMS WITHIN THE LINE REMAIN
   SEVERE...AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL ACTIVITY COULD BECOME BETTER
   ORGANIZED OR AT LEAST MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 07/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...MKX...

   LAT...LON   42838955 42988817 41568661 40868669 40538799 41758906
               42838955 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2015
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