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Mesoscale Discussion 1389
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1389
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN/S-CNTRL MT...NRN WY...SERN ID

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151749Z - 152015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM WILL EXIST THIS
   AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COMPACT MID/UPPER
   VORT MAX PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES...NOW CENTERED NEAR
   GREAT FALLS MONTANA. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PRECEDING THIS DISTURBANCE
   COUPLED WITH DIURNALLY STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
   CLOUD-FREE AREAS TO ITS S...WHICH ARE INVIGORATING OROGRAPHIC
   CIRCULATIONS...IS SUPPORTING CONTINUED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
   IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MODESTLY RICH
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER
   50S -- WILL MARGINALIZE BUOYANCY. REGARDLESS...THE PRESENCE OF
   500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT AMIDST A BAND OF
   ENHANCED WLYS TO THE S OF THE CYCLONE CENTER -- FAVORING 25-40 KT OF
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR -- FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS. AN ISOLATED
   STORM MAY PRODUCE SVR WIND/HAIL...THOUGH LIMITED BUOYANCY WILL
   LARGELY MITIGATE THE OVERALL SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

   LAT...LON   43570826 43371022 43951199 45031290 45931233 46110928
               45560805 44450750 43570826 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2014
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