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Mesoscale Discussion 1390
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1390
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1101 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST IL...SOUTHERN IND...SOUTHWEST
   OH...MUCH OF KY...AND NORTH CENTRAL TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 131601Z - 131730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL SPREAD SOUTH OF
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 409 BY 18Z. A NEW DOWNSTREAM WATCH ACROSS
   PARTS OF SOUTHERN IND...SOUTHWEST OH...KY AND NORTH-CENTRAL TN WILL
   BE NEEDED BY 17Z

   DISCUSSION...SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER IND
   HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. IN FACT A GUST TO 65 MPH WAS
   MEASURED IN HAMILTON COUNTY IND IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. THE
   DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS STRONG HEATING OF
   A VERY MOIST /75+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS/ AIRMASS CONTINUES. THIS WILL
   LEAD TO STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WILL INCREASE AS THE UPSTREAM
   SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK E/SE...PROVIDING CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE
   SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. FURTHERMORE...REGIONAL VWP/S
   HAVE SHOWN EVIDENCE OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WINDS /RIJ
   STRUCTURE/ AT TIMES IN THE 1-3 KM RANGE. GIVEN THIS THERMODYNAMIC
   AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
   GIVEN VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN
   MARGINAL. HOWEVER...A FEW SPIN-UPS IN MESOVORTICIES CAN NOT BE RULED
   OUT.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 07/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...
   ILX...

   LAT...LON   38688336 39398376 39728418 39838461 39718496 39118567
               38748648 38728708 38698804 38538828 38188828 37338815
               36488773 36208733 36028657 36098543 36288461 36868368
               37758323 38688336 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2015
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