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Mesoscale Discussion 1390
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1390
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 151751Z - 151945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL MAY OCCUR AS CELL COVERAGE
   INCREASES. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1003 MB LOW OVER ONTARIO
   WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. A BROAD
   WARM SECTOR EXISTS EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS
   WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
   EXTENDING NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE MOIST
   AXIS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
   FROM 1500 J/KG IN THE NEW YORK CITY AREA TO JUST ABOVE 500 J/KG IN
   SRN VT AND SRN NH. IN ADDITION...WSR-88D VWPS IN AND CLOSE TO THE
   MCD AREA SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6
   KM SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
   AS INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
   ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS
   WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   40637181 41217071 41616992 42277019 43277101 43507153
               43387225 42847290 42017339 41187352 40637181 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2014
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