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Mesoscale Discussion 1391
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1391
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN CO AND SERN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 151929Z - 152200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THE
   SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...VIS SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE
   CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE ROCKIES.
   WITH THE CYS/FTG VWPS DEPICTING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ORIENTED AT AN
   OBLIQUE ANGLE TO THE FRONT RANGE...CONVECTION MAY RESIDE MAINLY OVER
   THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. NEVERTHELESS...STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT/FLOW
   IN THE EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX APPROACHING FROM THE NW PER WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY...SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY INTENSIFY TO
   MARGINALLY SVR LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE SHORT-TERM. ALREADY
   AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...THE CYS VWP SAMPLES 30-40 KT OF MID-LEVEL
   NWLYS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM
   ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE.

   MEANWHILE...STATICALLY STABLE CONDITIONS LIKELY EXIST OVER THE
   ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...PARTICULARLY WHERE LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN
   SLOWER TO ERODE. WAVE CLOUDS EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY NEAR/SE OF
   PUEBLO ILLUSTRATE THIS THERMODYNAMIC STABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH AT
   LEAST SOME CONVECTION-STEERING FLOW ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONT
   RANGE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S-AROUND 60F OVER THE
   HIGH PLAINS...STORMS COULD MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND ONTO THE
   PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. OTHER
   STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PLAINS MAY EVOLVE ALONG A LEE TROUGH JUST
   E OF THE FRONT RANGE...AND ESPECIALLY NEAR A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE.
   LONG...NEARLY STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS MAY INITIALLY SUPPORT
   SPLITTING STORMS WITH SVR HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO -- AIDED BY
   LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK
   AND LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO RISK...WHILE AT LEAST SOME MLCINH
   POTENTIALLY PERSISTS. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH ISOLATED SVR WINDS BY
   LATE AFTERNOON.

   WITH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT RELEGATED TO HIGHER LATITUDES...AND
   WITH MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS --
   LIMITED IN ERN EXTENT BY MORE CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES -- CONFIDENCE
   IN A WW-WARRANTING SVR RISK IS NOT TREMENDOUS AT THIS TIME.
   HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE
   AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...GJT...

   LAT...LON   37040462 37510563 39430634 40970651 41860594 42170497
               41200412 39480348 37490337 37040462 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2014
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