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Mesoscale Discussion 1391
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MD 1391 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1391
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0151 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/FAR SE MN...W-CNTRL/CNTRL WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 131851Z - 132015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
   WITH A RESULTING SVR THREAT. PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS BUT A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. A WW WILL
   LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA TO COVER THE ANTICIPATED SVR
   THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS
   DAYTIME HEATING PUSHES TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AMIDST MID 60 TO
   LOW 70 DEWPOINTS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT
   WITH MLCAPE INCREASING FROM 1000 J PER KG IN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
   MD AREA TO OVER 2500 J PER KG NEAR THE MN/WI/IA BORDER INTERSECTION.


   RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER LSE WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING NWWD INTO CNTRL MN /EVIDENCED BY WEAK CONVERGENCE/...A
   WARM FRONT /DEMARCATED WELL BY THE 70 DEG ISODROSOTHERM/ ARCING SEWD
   FROM THE LOW INTO S-CNTRL WI...AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS
   CNTRL IA. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN INCREASING CU
   FIELD ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL MN INTO CNTRL WI WITH TSTM
   INITIATION EXPECT HERE SOON. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
   FARTHER SE AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES.

   MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG SHEAR 
   /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OVER 45 KT/ IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE ORGANIZED
   TSTMS WITH SOME SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SUPERCELLS...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING A TORNADO
   OR TWO. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD TEMPER THE
   TORNADO THREAT SOMEWHAT. THE EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY
   REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..MOSIER/HART.. 07/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44299286 44649322 45169339 45609295 45769270 45869207
               45249042 44518934 44198915 43848900 43338892 42988930
               42848968 43189044 43649144 44299286 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2015
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