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Mesoscale Discussion 1392
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1392
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0312 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN CO...ERN UT...NRN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 152012Z - 152245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY OCCUR THIS
   AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE RESIDUAL
   MIXED LAYER SAMPLED BY THE 12Z GRAND JUNCTION COLORADO RAOB -- E.G.
   H7-H5 LAPSE RATE AROUND 8 C/KM -- COUPLING OF THE SFC LAYER TO THE
   OVERLYING MIXED LAYER IS FOSTERING SBCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. THIS
   IS BEING AIDED BY RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
   REGION...WITH SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATING DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
   40S. MEANWHILE...TERRAIN-DRIVEN ASCENT IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION
   OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND FURTHER INCREASES IN STORM COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED AS WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT GLANCE
   THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL HEATING. 

   VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ANVILS ARE RESPONDING TO STRENGTHENING
   HIGH-LEVEL FLOW...AS THEY ARE BEING DEFINITIVELY SHED SEWD. THIS
   FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE VENTILATION AND MODEST
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES -- E.G. AROUND 20-25 KT -- TO
   SUPPORT STORM SUSTENANCE/ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...MORE SUBSTANTIAL
   DEEP SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS LOCATIONS FARTHER E/NE -- AS
   ADDRESSED IN MCD 1391. REGARDLESS...AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF
   SVR WIND/HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE
   LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY...AND THE LACK OF STRONGER
   LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD PREVENT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK FROM
   OCCURRING.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...SLC...

   LAT...LON   37970621 36930552 36670475 36250411 35520466 35540622
               36440812 38350980 39981025 40860925 40480718 37970621 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2014
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