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Mesoscale Discussion 1393
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1393
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0734 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern OH...northern WV...and southwestern PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221234Z - 221400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Long-lived MCS will likely persist into southwestern PA
   and northern WV this morning, though the damaging-wind threat
   appears too marginal for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS that formed overnight in IL/IN
   continues to move east-southeastward at 35-40 kt across eastern OH
   as of 1230z.  The downstream environment is only marginally
   unstable, and there are enough clouds to somewhat slow surface
   heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates.  Also, vertical
   shear is on the lower margins for organized severe storms (effective
   bulk shear around 25 kt).  These aforementioned factors will tend to
   limit the damaging-wind threat for the next couple of hours, though
   isolated strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with embedded
   bowing segments accompanied by stronger downdrafts and precipitation

   ..Thompson/Edwards.. 07/22/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38987932 38788004 38968164 39308199 40068132 40658115
               40818084 40898007 40597911 40247877 39477886 38987932 

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