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Mesoscale Discussion 1393
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1393
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0307 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST WV...WESTERN VA...NORTHEAST TN...WESTERN
   NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 132007Z - 132130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A STRONG/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM
   OF WATCH 410 INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
   POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...THE BOW ECHO OVER KY AND WV WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
   EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING. VARIOUS HI-RES CAMS INDICATE THAT THIS MCS WILL BE
   MAINTAINED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT REGION. THIS SEEMS
   REASONABLE GIVEN UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   DOWNSTREAM OF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE LINE COUPLED WITH POCKETS OF
   MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FURTHER EAST
   IS FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS TIME...A GRADUAL INCREASE TO NEAR 35 KT IS
   EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING
   THE ONGOING BOW ECHO AT LEAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/VA AND
   POSSIBLY TN/NC. 

   SHOULD CONVECTION REMAIN ORGANIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE
   THREAT MAY THEN SHIFT EAST OVER PARTS OF THE VA/NC PIEDMONT LATER
   THIS EVENING. SOME LIMITING FACTORS FURTHER EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT
   WILL BE THE LINE MOVING INTO THE REGION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
   STABILIZING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...ANY
   CONVECTION THAT CAN REMAIN SURFACE BASED AFTER DARK WILL POSE A
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 07/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   38018147 38698112 39018044 38707950 38407934 37597942
               36697994 35858077 35618131 35508211 35568283 35828342
               36238364 36558356 36888313 37058245 37368161 38018147 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2015
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