Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1394
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1394 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1394
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 152044Z - 152315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST OR TWO MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
   S-CNTRL AZ THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE
   NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION THAT
   CONSOLIDATED IN THE TUCSON AREA IS SPREADING WWD OVER THE LOWER
   DESERTS OF SRN AZ. STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS
   IT ENCOUNTERS A DEEPLY MIXED PBL IN WHICH EARLIER INTRUSIONS OF
   MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE SUPPORTING DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F -- YIELDING OF 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE.
   ASCENT INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS STORM
   DEVELOPMENT WWD ACROSS S-CNTRL AZ...WHILE ADDITIONAL
   TERRAIN-ENHANCED ASCENT ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM PROMOTES STORM
   DEVELOPMENT WITH COLD POOLS DESCENDING TO THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH
   THE INCREASING CONVECTION OCCURRING AMIDST DCAPE OF 1000-1500
   J/KG...STRONG DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF
   SVR WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR -- ESPECIALLY WHERE COLD POOLS CONSOLIDATE.
   BLOWING DUST AND SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO
   ACCOMPANY SUCH ACTIVITY. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT SUCH ACTIVITY
   COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE
   OF HOURS OR SO.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   34141276 33891169 33581139 33291160 32681204 31861226
               32261343 33331337 34141276 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 15, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities