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Mesoscale Discussion 1395
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1395
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NJ...SRN NY/METRO NYC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415...

   VALID 251903Z - 252000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 415 WITH DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS REMAINING THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT. INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A
   CORRIDOR OF HIGHER SVR WIND COVERAGE WILL MERIT AN UPGRADE TO AN
   ENHANCED RISK WITH THE UPCOMING 20Z OUTLOOK.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS CNTRL
   PA...AHEAD OF A MORE ORGANIZED LINE EXTENDING FROM THE NY SRN TIER
   SWWD TO PIT. SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AN EARLIER TSTM CLUSTER
   EXTENDS FROM SERN NY WWD TO JUST S OF BFD -- NEAR THE WRN NY/PA
   BORDER. AS THE ONGOING LINE CONTINUES EWD...THIS BOUNDARY WILL
   LIKELY PROMOTE INCREASED STORM STRENGTH WITH A RESULTING INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE WIND POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE. INCREASED COVERAGE WILL
   MERIT A HIGHER SVR THREAT AND AN UPGRADE TO ENH IS PLANNED WITH THE
   UPCOMING 20Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK. 

   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME SMALL HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AREA...PARTICULARLY WITH THE MORE DISCRETE
   DEVELOPMENT.

   ..MOSIER/COHEN.. 07/25/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
   CLE...

   LAT...LON   42257988 42587798 42237435 41777331 40577329 39567379
               39637596 39717883 39998023 42257988 

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Page last modified: July 25, 2016
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