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Mesoscale Discussion 1395
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1395
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 132046Z - 132215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY DEVELOP IF TSTM INITIATION IS
   REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE
   IN CU ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL KS. AIRMASS
   ACROSS THE REGION IS VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEG F.
   DESPITE MIXING...DEWPOINTS REMAIN ABOVE 60 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE FROM NEAR 1000 J PER KG IN DDC
   TO OVER 5000 J PER KG NEAR FRI. DESPITE THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE
   FORCING OVER THE REGION...THE COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
   SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AN UNCAPPED...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY RESULT IN
   TSTM INITIATION. WHILE SOME SVR HAIL IS POSSIBLE...HIGH-BASED NATURE
   OF THE TSTMS AND THE PRESENCE OF A DEEPLY MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
   RESULT IN A MAINLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SEVERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
   TO BE ISOLATED....RESULTING IN UNLIKELY WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT TRENDS
   ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED.

   ..MOSIER/HART.. 07/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38440052 39079839 39319756 39449696 39549593 39209574
               38829646 38269795 37770020 38440052 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2015
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