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Mesoscale Discussion 1395
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1395
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0435 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S/CNTRL ME

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 152135Z - 152300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS CENTERED OVER PARTS OF S FRANKLIN
   COUNTY WILL POSE A PRIMARY RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND
   POSSIBLY A TORNADO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LONGEVITY OF THE
   RISK FOR GREATER SPATIOTEMPORAL DURATION RENDERS UNCERTAINTY IN WW
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS WITHIN AN EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTER HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE FRANKLIN/OXFORD COUNTY LINE. 0-3 KM
   SRH IN GYX VWP DATA WAS ONLY AROUND 100-125 M2/S2...SUGGESTING THAT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY ONLY BE TRANSIENT IN NATURE. ALONG WITH
   PROBABLE INFLOW INGESTION OF OVERTURNED AIR FROM A SHORT QLCS ALONG
   THE SW ME/NH COAST AND COASTAL MARINE LAYER...THE LONGEVITY OF AN
   ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS QUESTIONABLE.

   ..GRAMS/CARBIN.. 07/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

   LAT...LON   44817032 45116976 45446920 45576863 45396810 45166817
               44636900 44226977 44277016 44527047 44817032 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2014
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