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Mesoscale Discussion 1396
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1396
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0433 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AND E-CNTRL MO...W-CNTRL/SWRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 132133Z - 132230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SHORT-TERM SVR THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY A TSTM
   MOVING ESEWD ACROSS NERN MO. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
   FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR UPSCALE
   CONVECTIVE GROWTH. A WW IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM OVER SULLIVAN COUNTIES MO WAS
   PROGRESSING ESEWD AT AROUND 45 KT...AND APPEARS TO BE ROOTED
   SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SFC ATTM. THIS STORM EVOLVED OUT OF A DECAYING
   CLUSTER OF TSTMS FROM EARLIER TODAY...BUT HAS SHOWN MORE RECENT
   SIGNS OF INTENSIFYING WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. WITH
   STRONG HEATING AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS
   MO...EXTREME BUOYANCY CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 5000
   J/KG IS IN PLACE...AND REMAINING CINH IS PROBABLY MOSTLY ERODED AS
   TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID-90S F. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
   A GROWING ACCAS FIELD EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE ONGOING STORM...AND IT
   IS POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR WITHIN THIS
   ZONE...WITH EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR BOWING
   LINE. THE POTENTIAL SCENARIO FOR UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IS BEING
   CLOSELY MONITORED...IN WHICH CASE WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED.

   ..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 07/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38199195 39009360 39599395 40109392 40429361 40479258
               40239156 39798955 39128875 37638965 38199195 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2015
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