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Mesoscale Discussion 1397
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1397
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0604 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423...

   VALID 152304Z - 160000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND
   MUCH OF REMAINING PORTION OF WW 423 MAY BE LOCALLY CANCELLED PRIOR
   TO 01Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION.

   DISCUSSION...LOW/MID-LEVEL REFLECTIVITY HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE WW 423...EXCEPT FOR TWO AREAS. ONE IS ALONG THE
   IMMEDIATE NJ COAST TO LONG ISLAND WHERE A WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURE
   IS EVIDENT JUST S OF NASSAU COUNTY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN
   A WATERSPOUT OR BRIEF TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
   HOUR OR SO AMIDST 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KT PER OKX VWP DATA. THE
   SECOND CORRIDOR OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND RISK IS BACK TOWARDS THE
   DC METRO AREA WHERE A CLUSTER OF TSTMS FORMED WITHIN A POCKET OF
   GREATER SURFACE HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER AFTERNOON
   CONVECTION. THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD BE LIMITED IN SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT
   GIVEN COOLER/STABILIZED AIR MASS HOLDING FROM THE CHESAPEAKE
   BAY/LOWER POTOMAC REGION AMIDST CONTINUED STRATIFORM RAIN.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   40987370 41207326 41167295 40887284 39677390 39157450
               38227522 37637640 37757740 38057786 38817739 39057714
               39377634 39927547 40457453 40987370 

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Page last modified: July 16, 2014
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