MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1397
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0444 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...FAR WRN VT/MA/CT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536...
   
   VALID 012144Z - 012245Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536
   CONTINUES.
   
   THREATS PRIMARILY OF HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. OCCASIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
   WELL.
   
   THE INITIAL VORT MAX THAT INFLUENCED EARLIER CONVECTION NOW APPEARS
   TO BE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH THE REMAINING ASCENT ON THE
   TAIL END APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SOME DEGREE OF ASCENT FOR RENEWED
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
   INITIAL WAVE MAY TEMPORARILY LIMIT MORE ROBUST STORMS...A SECONDARY
   SHORT WAVE MOVING NEWD INTO NERN PA MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT AS NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROVIDE LOCALIZED SURFACE
   CONVERGENCE. 18Z ALBANY SOUNDING REFLECTS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR HAIL PRODUCTION...THOUGH
   WEAKENING WIND FIELDS SHOWN ON VAD WIND PROFILE DATA AND DECREASING
   INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT OVERALL UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND SUBSEQUENT HAIL
   SIZES. HOWEVER...A THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WELL
   ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AND SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL SUPPORT A HEAVY RAIN
   THREAT.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 07/01/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   LAT...LON   41537504 44087516 44417570 45037501 45027254 44067273
               43647237 42787257 41497276 41537504