Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1397
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1397 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1397
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0445 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KY...WRN VA...SRN WV...NERN
   TN...NWRN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410...412...

   VALID 132145Z - 132345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   410...412...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A LONG-LIVED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
   PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS...INTO WW 412.
   THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW 410 AS
   WELL...ESPECIALLY SWRN AREAS WHERE NEW CONVECTION WILL POSE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...DOWNSTREAM
   WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED TO THE EAST OF 410/412 IF THE OVERALL
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAINTAINS ITS PRESENT INTENSITY.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 2130Z...AN EXPANSIVE BOWING MCS WAS PROGRESSING
   E/SEWD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND TOWARDS THE
   PIEDMONT REGION. WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS SOMEWHAT LESS
   FAVORABLE...IT IS STILL CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
   1500-2000 J/KG AND A WELL-MIXED/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
   THEREFORE...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY PERSIST EAST OF THE CURRENT
   WATCHES. AS A RESULT...AN AREAL EXTENSION FOR WW 412 WAS MADE TO
   INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE RNK CWA WITHIN WV.
   MOREOVER...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NECESSARY IF CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT FARTHER EAST.

   ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS OF WW 410...ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT IS YIELDING
   FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR /UPWARDS OF 40-45 KTS PER MESOANALYSIS AND
   REGIONAL VWP DATA/. ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING
   NW-SE ACROSS CNTRL KY...NEW CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UTILIZING THIS
   FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...AS WELL AS MLCAPE UPWARDS OF
   2000-3000 J/KG. THUS...MORE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
   HERE...WITH SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES/BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
   HERE AS WELL...FOR POTENTIAL NEW WW ISSUANCE OR AREAL EXTENSION INTO
   PORTIONS OF TN.

   ..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 07/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   37828575 37388436 37318303 38798138 38057932 36587957
               35638239 35748428 37108645 37828575 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 13, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities