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Mesoscale Discussion 1399
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1399
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL/SERN IL...WRN/CNTRL INDIANA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 413...

   VALID 132359Z - 140130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 413 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ALL SVR HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS
   ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 413. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED
   LINES REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...AND A NEW TORNADO
   WATCH IS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL INDIANA AND SERN IL.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS SEVERAL AREAS OF STRONG TO
   LIKELY SVR TSTMS ONGOING WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 413. AN EXCEPTIONALLY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE...WITH LOWER 90S SFC TEMPERATURES
   AMIDST UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS LIKELY YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF
   4000-5000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING AND NEWLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION...AND
   TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
   ACROSS N-CNTRL AND E-CNTRL IL INTO WRN INDIANA. 

   WITH LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOWING AN ARCING AREA OF NEW TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT FROM SW OF THE CHICAGO AREA INTO FAR WRN INDIANA...AND
   ADDITIONAL STORMS ENTERING WRN PORTIONS OF IL...CURRENT EXPECTATION
   IS THAT ONE OR MORE AREAS OF UPSCALE GROWTH WILL OCCUR INTO AN
   ORGANIZED LINE VIA MERGERS/INTERACTIONS. DMGG WIND THREAT /WITH
   ISOLATED SIG WIND POSSIBLE/ WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE SHOULD THIS
   OCCUR...AND COULD EXTEND S/E OF TORNADO WATCH 413 INTO ADDITIONAL
   PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL INDIANA AND SERN IL. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY
   REQUIRE A NEW TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

   ..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 07/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MKX...
   LSX...DVN...ARX...

   LAT...LON   41288636 40268536 38978556 37728725 37658811 38428857
               39448942 40169147 40219151 41419148 42299136 42649112
               42689090 42438636 41288636 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2015
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