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Mesoscale Discussion 1399
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1399
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY...FAR W NEB PANHANDLE/NE CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 424...

   VALID 160433Z - 160600Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 424
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...MARGINAL/LOCALIZED SEVERE HAIL/WIND RISK MAY PERSIST FOR A
   FEW MORE HOURS...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ADDITIONAL
   DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...TSTM CLUSTERS OVER SE WY HAVE WEAKENED OVERALL DURING
   THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD A
   PROGRESSIVELY COOLER RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER IN NE CO AND W
   NEB...APPRECIABLE INTENSITY INCREASE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STILL..THIS
   CONVECTION REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR POTENTIAL UPDRAFT
   ROTATION...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 50 KT PER CYS/FTG VWP DATA. THIS
   COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF FLARE-UP OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL/WIND...BUT CONTINUED WANING INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE OVERALL
   RISK IS LOW.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40380479 41440618 42090624 42300599 42830484 42790371
               42440318 41100299 40730308 40450338 40350432 40380479 

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Page last modified: July 16, 2014
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