|Mesoscale Discussion 1399|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1399
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017
Areas affected...Central/eastern VA...Far northeast NC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 222311Z - 230045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging winds will continue
through the early evening with multiple clusters of convection.
Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of convection are ongoing across
portions of eastern VA, with some recent reports of damaging wind
and observed wind gusts of 35-40 kt near DC. For the short term,
this activity will continue to pose a threat of locally damaging
wind, given the presence of ample moisture/instability and
relatively steep low-level lapse rates near and south of an
effective surface boundary draped across central VA.
With time, upstream convection over OH/WV will begin to approach the
region, with the potential for one or more small bowing clusters to
move across the area later this evening. These will also pose some
risk of locally damaging wind.
Deep-layer shear is only marginally favorable for organized storm
structures, but one or more corridors of more concentrated wind
potential may evolve with any cluster with a well-developed cold
pool. At this time, uncertainty regarding the magnitude and coverage
of the threat renders watch issuance unlikely.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38587955 38427814 38257718 38007638 37697614 37167604
36357578 36147649 36537729 37057806 37377893 37838002
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