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Mesoscale Discussion 1399
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1399
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0611 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

   Areas affected...Central/eastern VA...Far northeast NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 222311Z - 230045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging winds will continue
   through the early evening with multiple clusters of convection.
   Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of convection are ongoing across
   portions of eastern VA, with some recent reports of damaging wind
   and observed wind gusts of 35-40 kt near DC. For the short term,
   this activity will continue to pose a threat of locally damaging
   wind, given the presence of ample moisture/instability and
   relatively steep low-level lapse rates near and south of an
   effective surface boundary draped across central VA. 

   With time, upstream convection over OH/WV will begin to approach the
   region, with the potential for one or more small bowing clusters to
   move across the area later this evening. These will also pose some
   risk of locally damaging wind. 

   Deep-layer shear is only marginally favorable for organized storm
   structures, but one or more corridors of more concentrated wind
   potential may evolve with any cluster with a well-developed cold
   pool. At this time, uncertainty regarding the magnitude and coverage
   of the threat renders watch issuance unlikely.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 07/22/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   38587955 38427814 38257718 38007638 37697614 37167604
               36357578 36147649 36537729 37057806 37377893 37838002
               38587955 

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