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Mesoscale Discussion 1400
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1400
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0706 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN VA...CNTRL/WRN NC...NRN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412...414...415...

   VALID 140006Z - 140130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   412...414...415...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...WHILE SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL CONTINUES WITH NEW CONVECTION AHEAD OF AN E/SEWD-PROGRESSING
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...A MARKED DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY HAS BEEN
   OBSERVED WITH THIS LINE OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS. AS SUCH...NO NEW
   WATCH ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT DATA FROM REGIONAL WSR-88DS INDICATE A
   NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND IN REFLECTIVITY CORES...AS WELL AS OUTFLOW
   ADVANCING AWAY FROM SEVERAL OF THESE CORES. THEREFORE...THE
   WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THIS LONG-LIVED /BUT DECAYING/
   MCS APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...PRIOR DIURNAL
   HEATING TO THE EAST OF THE LINE AND AMPLE MOISTURE HAS YIELDED
   FAIRLY ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL VA/NC AND NRN SC.
   THE PRESENCE OF 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR UPWARDS
   OF 35-40 KTS /PER RAX VWP DATA AND MESOANALYSIS/ SHOULD OFFER ENOUGH
   UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION TO MAINTAIN SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS/MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF
   INSOLATION...CELLS SHOULD EXHIBIT AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH
   THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS AND NO NEW WW ISSUANCE IS ANTICIPATED.

   ..PICCA.. 07/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35358233 36388071 38108016 37987843 34777967 34548146
               35358233 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2015
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