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Mesoscale Discussion 1400
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1400
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE ERN FL PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 161700Z - 161830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE ERN FL PENINSULA MAY BE CAPABLE
   OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
   ATLANTIC COAST. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS CROSSING THE FL INTERIOR
   HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A NEARLY CONTINUOUS BAND OF CONVECTION
   APPROACHING THE E COAST. DIABATIC SFC HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THIS
   ACTIVITY HAS GENERATED AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WHICH WILL BE
   MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE COAST
   BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND WEST PALM BEACH. MLB VWP SAMPLES 20 KT OF
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER...FOSTERING FORWARD
   PROPAGATION OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT
   WILL AID IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR ONE OR TWO LOCALIZED DMGG WIND
   GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE FURTHER ENCOURAGED BY WATER
   LOADING...AS PW IS AROUND 2 INCHES PER GPS DATA. THE LACK OF
   STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND THE LACK OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES SHOULD
   PRECLUDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ONGOING
   STORMS SUGGESTS THAT THEY SHOULD ENTER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
   IN THE 1730-1830Z TIME FRAME.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

   LAT...LON   26398011 26608041 27998077 28328057 27408012 26697997
               26398011 

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Page last modified: July 16, 2014
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