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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1400
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB/NERN CO AND NWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537...
VALID 020319Z - 020415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537
CONTINUES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED AN IMPULSE/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. REGIONAL
RADARS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN STRONGER TSTMS ALONG A LINE FROM THE
NEB PANHANDLE INTO NERN CO. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL TSTMS INTO THE LATE EVENING
WITHIN THE ONGOING NEB PANHANDLE/NERN CO TSTM CLUSTERS.
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A GENERAL ESE MOVEMENT OF THESE TSTMS
WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED IN THE NEB PANHANDLE EXITING THE NEB
PORTION OF WW 537 BETWEEN 05-06Z...AND FARTHER S IN CO...STORMS
SHOULD EXIT THIS WATCH BY 0330Z. ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD PERSIST
ESEWD LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD...
STRENGTHENING SURFACE BASED INHIBITION WITH ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL EVENTS WITH THE STRONGER
CORES. IF ACTIVITY INTENSIFIES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LOCAL
EXTENSION EWD OF THIS WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY WFO LBF...OR IF THREAT
APPEARS POSSIBLE INTO NWRN KS THEN A NEW WW WOULD BE NEEDED.
..PETERS.. 07/02/2009
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39570285 39620361 40000456 40090503 40990488 40930408
41760314 42340332 43050333 42980009 42110025 41340055
40730085 39590187 39570285
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