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Mesoscale Discussion 1400
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1400
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 261709Z - 261845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
   HOUR OR TWO BUT THE LIMIT AREAL EXTENT OF THE SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED
   TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
   REVEAL THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN SD CONTINUES
   TO MOVE SEWD INTO CNTRL/ERN SD. TEMPERATURES JUST AHEAD OF THIS
   OUTFLOW ACROSS S-CNTRL SD ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AMIDST
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. MODIFIED 12Z ABR SOUNDING AND RECENT RAP
   MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAKER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM ROUGHLY
   ICR /IN S-CNTRL SD/ NEWD TO AROUND ATY /IN NE SD/. RADAR IMAGERY
   SHOWS A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS NARROW CORRIDOR OF
   WEAKER INHIBITION. 

   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
   -- MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG PER THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS -- AND ABR
   VAD RECENTLY SAMPLED 35 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS
   ARE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS. A COOLER AIRMASS EXISTS DOWNSTREAM /ACROSS FAR SE SD AND NE
   NEB/ AND THE RESULTING INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND REDUCED
   INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ANY SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
   SHORT-LIVED...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

   ..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 07/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43230121 45339891 46059763 45489674 44639701 43409847
               42750015 43230121 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2016
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