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Mesoscale Discussion 1401
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1401
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0133 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 161833Z - 162000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   CNTRL AND ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT SHOULD
   REMAIN ISOLATED...WW ISSUANCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009 MB LOW OVER NERN
   NM WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD INTO CNTRL CO. SFC DEWPOINTS TO
   THE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN CO ARE IN THE UPPER
   50S TO LOWER 60S F. AS SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN IN THE MID 70S F...A
   NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED
   IN THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED IN THE COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY. THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND ESEWD ACROSS SERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
   STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVE
   ESEWD ACROSS THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. THE WSR-88D VWP AT DENVER CO
   CURRENTLY SHOWS 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR IN
   THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL.
   MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS MATURE
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   37750233 37110362 37140498 38060568 39870543 40840543
               41000451 40470376 39380283 37750233 

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Page last modified: July 16, 2014
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