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Mesoscale Discussion 1401
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1401
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...FAR SOUTHERN
   OHIO...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 261731Z - 261930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS INCREASING OVER THE
   AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL
   PERTURBATION IN THE WESTERLY FLOW IS CROSSING ILLINOIS PER WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSES...AND IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE SOUTHERN
   EDGE OF A CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE ELEVATED CONVECTION
   EARLIER IN THE DAY /AND A SUBSEQUENT ENHANCEMENT IN NEAR-SURFACE
   CONFLUENCE/ IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE NORTHERN
   EDGE OF THE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES
   NOW RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. 

   BROADLY...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THE
   LAST HOUR AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO IN THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR...A VERY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER EXPERIENCING STRONG HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
   STORMS/DOWNDRAFTS. SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION CAN BE EXPECTED
   AS THE CONVECTION MOVES ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGES OF
   STRONGER MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...BUT THE ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE
   LIMITED GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT. FURTHERMORE...THE
   SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED SHARPLY BY RAPIDLY
   DECREASING FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO THE SOUTH NOTED IN
   MORNING RAOBS. HOWEVER...TRENDS IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR ANY INDICATIONS OF ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND
   UPSCALE GROWTH...PARTICULARLY WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER JUST SOUTH
   OF THE CINCINNATI AREA...WHICH COULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR WATCH
   ISSUANCE LATER IN THE DAY.

   ..CONIGLIO/EDWARDS.. 07/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

   LAT...LON   39238455 39178331 38858158 38588129 38188131 37838176
               37618308 37728512 37868612 38088648 38418652 38858636
               39188584 39238455 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2016
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