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Mesoscale Discussion 1401
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1401
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0711 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

   Areas affected...Central/southeast IL...Southern IN...Northern
   KY...Far Southwest OH

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 230011Z - 230145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening,
   with a threat of hail and locally damaging wind. At this time, watch
   issuance is considered unlikely due to questions regarding the
   magnitude of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms have developed across portions of
   southeast IL into southern IN, along and just north of a surface
   boundary draped across the region. For the short term, large MLCAPE
   of 2000-3500 J/kg will support robust updrafts with a threat of
   marginally severe hail and locally damaging wind, though rather weak
   effective shear is expected to limit storm organization. A modest
   southwesterly low-level jet of around 20-30 kt (per IWX and PAH
   VWPs) may continue to support slightly elevated convection just
   north of the surface boundary for much of the evening. While
   convection is expected to remain generally disorganized, growing
   storm clusters later this evening may support short-lived bowing
   segments capable of damaging wind. At this time, the threat is
   expected to remain too limited in magnitude for watch issuance.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 07/23/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39968826 39978761 39378629 38998502 38928405 38938343
               38768296 38138317 38008359 38098500 38178593 38368674
               38608734 38778785 38918896 39329015 40029006 39968826 

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