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Mesoscale Discussion 1401
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1401
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415...

   VALID 140038Z - 140215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 415 CONTINUES PRIMARILY WITH A
   SUPERCELL PROGRESSING THROUGH CLAY COUNTY TN. WHILE NEW THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
   CONVECTION AWAY FROM THIS SUPERCELL APPEARS TO BE WANING.

   DISCUSSION...A ROBUST SUPERCELL /PREVIOUSLY INITIATED ALONG TRAILING
   OUTFLOW IN KY FROM THE SEWD-PROGRESSING MCS/ IS GENERALLY
   MAINTAINING INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS SWD INTO TN THIS EVENING.
   INDEED...THE CELL HAS EXHIBITED NUMEROUS SIGNALS OF A
   WELL-ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFT...INCLUDING PULSING ZDR
   COLUMNS...DEPRESSED CC IN THE HAIL-GROWTH ZONE...AND OCCASIONAL ZDR
   ARC SIGNATURES /SUGGESTIVE OF VIGOROUS SIZE SORTING OF DROPS/. 

   ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MODEST AT BEST...WELL-DEFINED VEERING
   WITH HEIGHT AND THE PRESENCE OF 40-55 KTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
   /OBSERVED IN THE 00Z BNA RAOB/ IS YIELDING 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR. THEREFORE...UPDRAFT ROTATION/ORGANIZATION WITH THIS SUPERCELL
   SHOULD FURTHER ENCOURAGE LARGE HAIL GROWTH AS IT PROGRESSES S/SE
   OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ELSEWHERE...NEW INITIATION APPEARS
   QUESTIONABLE AS INSOLATION WANES AND STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   REMAINS FARTHER NORTH. THEREFORE...NEW WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

   ..PICCA.. 07/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   36638577 36598479 35388460 35098512 35218575 36638577 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2015
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