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Mesoscale Discussion 1402
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1402
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0831 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN INDIANA...SRN IL...SWRN OH...MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL
   KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 417...

   VALID 140131Z - 140230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
   ILLINOIS WILL APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.
   A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS ERN IL INTO CNTRL INDIANA ARE
   FORECAST TO CONGEAL/GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR TWO ORGANIZED LINES
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AND PROPAGATE S/SEWD TOWARDS THE OH
   VALLEY. AN ADDITIONAL LONG-LIVED TSTM AND NEARBY DEVELOPING
   CONVECTION CONTINUE OVER CNTRL IL...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO EXTEND
   SWD INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY.

   THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION...GIVEN
   OBSERVED MID-UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS AND PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES OBSERVED IN 00Z SOUNDINGS. A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARTIALLY
   RESULTING FROM EARLIER MCS IS IN PLACE NEAR SDF...WITH A MORE
   STABLE/CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY TO THE E /AS OBSERVED IN 00Z ILN
   SOUNDING/. THIS ZONE SHOULD SHIFT EWD WITH TIME IN CONCERT WITH A
   STRENGTHENING LLJ INTO PARTS OF WRN OH AND CNTRL/ERN KY. AS THIS
   OCCURS...SVR THREAT /INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DMGG
   WINDS/ APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED ACROSS SRN INDIANA INTO NRN KY AND
   INTO SOUTHWEST OH. MORE UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER A SVR THREAT WILL
   MATERIALIZE FARTHER W INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY...BUT UPSHEAR
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 07/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38688579 39058542 39988493 40678483 40718432 40258326
               39008331 37898408 36968589 36778763 36648854 37248934
               37858940 38498887 38658702 38688579 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2015
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