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Mesoscale Discussion 1402
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1402
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 161928Z - 162200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
   CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR
   STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THOUGH THE CHANCES FOR
   SUCH ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LOW. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE S OF A WAVY
   STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOW ROLLING
   PLAINS TO NEAR SHERMAN/DENISON THEN EWD INVOF THE RED RIVER.
   MODIFICATIONS TO NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
   SFC CONDITIONS S OF THE BOUNDARY -- WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED
   INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90F -- SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE ON THE
   ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG EXISTS WITH LITTLE MLCINH. VIS IMAGERY
   HIGHLIGHTS THE CU FIELD BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED WITH
   CONVECTION DEVELOPING INVOF THE FRONT AND ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   BLOSSOM ALONG THESE ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL ASCENT DESPITE WEAK
   DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. A CONFLUENCE AXIS ARCING FROM THE DFW METROPLEX
   TO THE UPPER TX COAST MAY ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR STORMS. GIVEN THE
   AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY...A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS MAY YIELD STRONG
   WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL. A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME MARGINALLY
   SVR. ANY DMGG WINDS -- VERY ISOLATED AT MOST -- WOULD BE ENHANCED BY
   DCAPE AROUND 800-1000 J/KG AND IN CASES WHERE LOCALIZED MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS EVOLVE AS FACILITATED BY MODEST DEEP SHEAR OFFERED BY 20-KT
   MID-LEVEL WLYS.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   32590038 33270024 33309840 33749695 32269614 31499651
               31209836 31899983 32590038 

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Page last modified: July 16, 2014
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