MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1402
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1225 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MT...WY...ND...SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 021725Z - 021830Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS SERN MT/NERN WY
   AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE WRN DAKOTAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
   FEW OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY INCREASES
   IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION.
   
   LIFT WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NWRN WY
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL AID STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ABOVE
   AREAS. ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE SUPPORT IS CURRENTLY BEING PROVIDED BY
   WEAK POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
   THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS TO THE BLACK HILLS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
   DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE DEVELOPMENT REGIONS WILL BOOST CAPE VALUES AND
   CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED STORM UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. MODEST WLY FLOW OF
   25-30KT AROUND NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE...COMBINED WITH WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
   SHEAR FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT CELLS WITH THE CAPABILITY
   OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
   WIND EVENTS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/02/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...
   
   LAT...LON   46820710 47310588 46960414 45890246 44680196 43730266
               43210372 43200494 43210557 43870630 44640691 45490731
               46820710