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Mesoscale Discussion 1403
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MD 1403 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1403
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1148 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

   Areas affected...Central MO toward the MS river

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 230448Z - 230615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A complex of thunderstorms may persist in some fashion
   across MO, with at least an isolated damaging wind threat.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived and impressive complex of thunderstorms
   continues to trek eastward into central MO, with a history of
   damaging winds from northeast KS into western MO. This complex has
   been primarily instability driven, with an MLCAPE environment in
   excess of 4000 J/kg and otherwise weak low-level flow.

   CAMS such as the HRRR and NSSL WRF have forecast this complex fairly
   well, and suggest it may make it to the MO river, although in a
   weaker state.  Therefore, while some damaging wind potential exists,
   it may not be as particularly widespread as earlier.

   ..Jewell.. 07/23/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38279280 38369343 38589374 38969388 39469390 39969351
               40269306 40329235 40049146 39739096 39149040 38689012
               38409032 38309199 38279280 

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