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Mesoscale Discussion 1403
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1403
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0251 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN FL AND SRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 161951Z - 162145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...AND AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND
   GUST MAY OCCUR. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...AREAS OF INSOLATION S OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
   ANALYZED FROM SAVANNAH GA TO NW OF APALACHICOLA FL...AND TO THE N OF
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA...ARE
   FOSTERING A CORRIDOR OF 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA. FRONTAL ASCENT...AND ASCENT RELATED TO
   BAROCLINICITY ACCOMPANYING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES AND CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE EWD PROGRESSION OF
   THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY HAVE
   IMPLIED LOCALIZED ORGANIZATION OF COLD POOLS/BANDED CONVECTIVE
   STRUCTURES. THIS MAY BE AIDED BY 20 KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL WLYS
   THROUGH LOWER/MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTIVE-CLOUD LAYER SAMPLED
   BY THE JAX VWP. WITH GPS DATA INDICATING AROUND 2 INCHES OF
   PW...WATER LOADING COULD SUPPORT STRONG WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF A
   DMGG WIND GUST. THE LACK OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...AND THE
   LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY...SHOULD OFFSET STORM INTENSITY.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30148405 30768290 31438117 30248137 29768172 29468306
               30148405 

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Page last modified: July 16, 2014
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