Mesoscale Discussion 1403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017
Areas affected...Central MO toward the MS river
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 230448Z - 230615Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A complex of thunderstorms may persist in some fashion
across MO, with at least an isolated damaging wind threat.
DISCUSSION...A long-lived and impressive complex of thunderstorms
continues to trek eastward into central MO, with a history of
damaging winds from northeast KS into western MO. This complex has
been primarily instability driven, with an MLCAPE environment in
excess of 4000 J/kg and otherwise weak low-level flow.
CAMS such as the HRRR and NSSL WRF have forecast this complex fairly
well, and suggest it may make it to the MO river, although in a
weaker state. Therefore, while some damaging wind potential exists,
it may not be as particularly widespread as earlier.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38279280 38369343 38589374 38969388 39469390 39969351
40269306 40329235 40049146 39739096 39149040 38689012
38409032 38309199 38279280