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Mesoscale Discussion 1404
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1404
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0150 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

   Areas affected...Far southern IN through northern...central into
   eastern KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 230650Z - 230945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging wind gusts will be possible
   through the overnight to early this morning from far southern IN
   through parts of northern, central, and eastern KY.  Overall
   expected episodic occurrences of strong/damaging wind gusts preclude
   the issuance of a severe-thunderstorm watch at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery showed two MCSs ongoing
   in the Ohio Valley, 1) extending from far southeast IL through
   southern IN, and 2) extending from southwest OH into northeast KY. 
   These MCSs are tracking to the east-southeast within a moderate
   instability (MUCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) gradient.  Surface observations
   and objective data indicate high theta-e air resides southward of
   these storm complexes. A westerly 25-30-kt low-level jet across KY
   will maintain a feed of the available instability for new storm
   development.  Effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt will support storm
   organization.  Meanwhile, composite outflow boundaries extending
   from east-central to northwest KY into southwest IN are moving ahead
   of stronger storms that have elevated pockets of 50-55-kt winds per
   area WSR-88Ds.  Although surface-based inhibition has strengthened,
   individual storm movements up to 35 kt (40 kt with stronger storms)
   and stronger winds above the surface could result in episodic
   damaging wind gusts reaching the surface.  This threat will be
   greatest with any storms that show signs of upscale
   growth/organization.

   ..Peters/Edwards.. 07/23/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   38718726 38668658 38368544 38198445 37898316 37728241
               37528220 36938296 36948374 37318531 37778715 37998769
               38068777 38718726 

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Page last modified: July 23, 2017
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