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Mesoscale Discussion 1404
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1404
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 162016Z - 162145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD OVER THE NEXT
   HOUR ACROSS NE NM AND SHOULD AFFECT THE WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES
   WITHIN A FEW HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS SPREAD SEWD
   OUT OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006 MB LOW TO THE WEST
   OF CLAYTON NM WITH A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   EXTENDING NWD FROM THE SFC LOW INTO SRN CO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   DEVELOPING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR TO THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   NEAR RATON PASS AND WSWWD TO NEAR TAOS NM. SHORT-TERM MODEL
   FORECASTS MOVE THIS CONVECTION SEWD ACROSS NE MN OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS WHERE MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
   ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION TO THE
   INSTABILITY...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 35 TO
   45 KT RANGE WITH WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT BELOW 2 KM AGL. THIS
   ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. AS STORMS EXPAND
   IN COVERAGE AND MOVE TOWARD THE MAX IN INSTABILITY OVER THE WRN AND
   TX PANHANDLES...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH
   TIME. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
   ORGANIZES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37390263 37340357 36950413 35440412 34230294 34060210
               35110173 36870204 37390263 

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Page last modified: July 16, 2014
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