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Mesoscale Discussion 1404
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1404
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1022 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND NERN IL...MUCH OF CNTRL/NRN INDIANA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 413...417...

   VALID 140322Z - 140415Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 413...417...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGHEST OVER CNTRL
   INDIANA...WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY ISOLATED ACROSS NRN IL...WITH
   DMGG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE SVR THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
   ONGOING LINE OF TSTMS APPROACHING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA MAY
   CONTINUE PAST TORNADO WATCH 417 EXPIRATION TIME OF 04Z...AND A LOCAL
   EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE CONSIDERED.

   DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR STORMS ARE
   ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL INDIANA ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF PLUME OF
   RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /LOWER-MID 70S DEWPOINTS/. STORMS HAVE
   FAILED TO CONGEAL INTO AN ORGANIZED LINE THUS FAR...BUT NEW TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY A MODEST INCREASE IN A WLY LLJ COULD SUPPORT
   EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH ACROSS PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 417. IN THE
   MEANTIME...DMGG WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN DOMINANT BUT RELATIVELY
   ISOLATED...WITH LOWER/MORE SPORADIC POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY
   A BRIEF TORNADO.

   ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 417 IN NRN/CNTRL IL...MOST CONVECTION HAS
   WEAKENED OR MOVED E OF THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION IS A PERSISTING LINE
   OF STORMS AFFECTING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA EXTENDING WWD INTO DEKALB
   COUNTY...EXHIBITING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. THE SVR
   THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS COULD PERSIST PAST WATCH
   EXPIRATION TIME OF 04Z ACROSS NERN IL...AND A LOCAL EXTENSION IN
   TIME COULD BE CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF WATCH 417.

   ..ROGERS.. 07/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   41058493 39688534 39018579 38888659 38738736 40498859
               41918906 42348907 42468854 42428798 41898683 41668497
               41058493 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2015
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