MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1405
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NY...MA...CT...RI...NJ...PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 021920Z - 022015Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF PA/NJ/NY AND
   SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
   EVENING. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM THIS
   ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIMITED IN BOTH DURATION AND COVERAGE.
   IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SLGT RISK AREA MAY BE REDUCED OR REMOVED
   FROM THE REGION WITH THE NEXT 20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE.
   
   MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE
   NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND IS COINCIDENT WITH A SLOW-MOVING
   OCCLUDED LOW AND FRONT OVER NRN/ERN NY...AND A WEAK SECONDARY
   CYCLONE LOCATED OVER SERN NY/WRN CT. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO EXTEND
   EWD FROM THE SECONDARY LOW FROM CT TO NEAR CAPE COD. AIRMASS ACROSS
   THE REGION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE TODAY GIVEN THICK CLOUD
   COVER AND HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS EARLIER TODAY. SOME CLEARING IS
   NOW OCCURRING ACROSS PA/NJ/NY AND CT AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
   GREATER DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS ANOTHER
   VORT LOBE AND SUBSEQUENT LARGER SCALE ASCENT PIVOTS AROUND UPPER LOW
   ACROSS NY AND SPREADS EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
   OF DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD THROUGH THIS EVENING.
   
   LATEST SOUNDING AND PROFILER INFORMATION APPEARS TO SUGGEST LIMITED
   POTENTIAL FOR THIS NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE
   WAY OF HAIL/WIND DMG. MOIST LAPSE RATES AND GENERALLY MARGINAL SHEAR
   AOB 30KT INDICATED BY LATEST ALBANY RAOB ARE CONSISTENT WITH RUC
   MODEL AND ACARS SOUNDINGS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NYC AREA AND CT.
   THUS...WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/LIGHTNING...AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL
   COULD DEVELOP...OVERALL SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO
   WARRANT CONTINUING A SLGT RISK OR ISSUING A WATCH.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/02/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
   
   LAT...LON   42637125 41667023 41207099 40797278 40687358 40677435
               40977482 41427538 41567531 42067499 42687432 42647340
               42637125