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Mesoscale Discussion 1405
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1405
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 162046Z - 162245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM MAY PRODUCE AN
   ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST AS THEY AFFECT PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN AZ. WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS
   CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
   AMIDST A PLUME OF RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE -- E.G. PW OF
   1.25-1.50 INCHES PER GPS DATA. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
   THE COVERAGE OF SUCH ACTIVITY COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FACILITATE
   AMALGAMATING COLD POOLS TO LOCALLY BOLSTER COLD POOL SIZE/STRENGTH.
   GIVEN A DEARTH OF STEERING FLOW...PRIMARILY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
   RIM...PRIMARY STORM MOTIONS WILL BE DRIVEN BY CONVECTIVE
   REGENERATION ALONG THE LEADING EDGES OF EWD/SEWD-EXPANDING COLD
   POOLS. DCAPE VALUES REACHING AROUND 1000 J/KG ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP
   MIXED LAYERS -- ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS -- MAY SUPPORT AN
   ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   33000963 33411084 34111201 34101093 33630947 33220905
               33000963 

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Page last modified: July 16, 2014
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