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Mesoscale Discussion 1405
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1405
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1043 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL AND SWRN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 140343Z - 140445Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY A LINE OF TSTMS
   APPROACHING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...AND DEVELOPING TSTMS ACROSS FAR
   SWRN MI. DUE TO THE MARGINALITY OF THE SVR THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IS MOVING
   EWD AT AROUND 40 KT...WITH SRN PORTION OF THE LINE APPROACHING THE
   SHORE OF LOWER MI. ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE FORMED MORE RECENTLY WITHIN
   A WEAK WAA REGIME FROM ST. JOSEPH INTO VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS FAIRLY MARGINAL ACROSS THIS AREA...AND
   A CAPPING INVERSION IS LIKELY IN PLACE OWING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
   LOW-MID 70S. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
   ONGOING CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH STRONG WIND GUSTS /AND PERHAPS AN
   ISOLATED SVR GUST OR TWO/ ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

   ..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 07/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43248497 42248496 41808528 41858600 42068642 42708629
               43258635 43518620 43608558 43568536 43248497 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2015
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